Investing With Purpose: IWP Portfolio

Trade Plan Update - Week of Oct 12 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 12:22:46 GMT

This week’s edge: the extremes emptied into the middle. Breakdowns fell from 24 to 20, but Trend-Holds fell too, from 26 to 22, and Transitional went from 7 to 13. Fewer names are broken and fewer are trending, so take the handful that actually reclaimed, at a level, and leave the middle of the book alone.

Every week we sort the 60 stocks and ETFs we cover into four trend regimes and publish three numbers for each: the price at which the name may be bought, the first level to take something off, and the level where we step aside. They are written before Monday opens, because a price set in advance is worth more than a decision made while a position is already moving.

What this letter is for. The names we cover are large and liquid and spread across technology, semiconductors, energy, defence, healthcare, retail, metals and European listings, and the work here is not to tell you which of them is a good company. It is to say at what price each one may be bought or traded, and at what price we step aside. Good names bought at the wrong price still lose money, and that gap is the whole reason this exists.

We buy strength that has proved itself rather than weakness that might. When a beaten-down tape snaps back hard we will be late to the names that gapped off the bottom, and we take that trade deliberately: the patience that costs us the first bounce is the same patience that keeps us out of the names that carry on falling.

If a level looks wrong to you, say so in the comments. They shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The S&P 500 closed at 778.57, Trend-Hold and up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 at 751.27 is Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth turned over:

Breakdowns went from 24 to 20
Repairs rose from 3 to 5
Trend-Holds fell from 26 to 22.

Regime upgrades edged downgrades 12 to 10, with the moves running in both directions at once. Both ends emptied into the middle, with Transitional going from 7 to 13. Fewer names are broken and fewer are trending, which is churn rather than repair.

The buying concentrated in +13%, +11%, +11%, +8% on the upside, against -13%, -12%, -12%, -9% on the other side.

Fresh damage showed up in AIXA.DE and CRWV, dropping to Breakdown.

Trend-Hold was reclaimed in , BRK.B, , and . The repair is real, and it still has to hold what it just took back.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMZN, BRK.B, DG, GOOG, LLY. The strongest signal the framework prints, structure fully repaired. The weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just reclaimed.
Up a step into Transitional: COST, PINS, UNH, WMT. Basing turned into an actual recovery attempt, one notch short of a trend.
First repair off the lows: AVGO, BABA, INTU. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: ETHA, INTC, LRCX, NBIS, SMSN.L, TSM, XRPI. The trend is lost and now has to be re-proved.
Lost the trend, into Repair: IFX.DE. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AIXA.DE, CRWV. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list. AIXA.DE went from Trend-Hold to Breakdown in a single week, which is a three-regime fall and the sharpest kind of break the framework registers.
ETHA restated its price history. A 1-for-3 reverse split took effect on 6 October, so every ETHA level in last week’s issue is a third of what it should be. The 20.95 entry and 19.52 stop we published read as 62.85 and 58.56 on today’s shares. Use this week’s numbers and do not carry the old ones forward.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Each name is classified into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair or Breakdown) from the 1D EMA stack, with the 1W regime printed beside it in every setup, and every level traces back to a specific indicator. T1 is the first profit-take, T2 the structural objective, T3 the stretch target. Regime sets how much risk a name is allowed and when: Trend-Hold earns full risk but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout, Transitional gets half or nothing, Repair gets a starter only after a reclaim, Breakdown gets none until a reclaim confirms.

Two stops, two jobs, and the tighter one governs. The trade stop is the tactical level where we step aside and let the position go. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the classification flips and the reason to own the name is gone. Both are printed in every setup, trade stop first, and the tables print whichever of the two sits nearer to price, because that is the one that will actually take you out.

How long a trade lasts, and when to take something. Every level here is a one-week level: take it during the plan week, and if neither the first target nor a stop has been reached, mark it at Friday close and re-read the structure next issue. Take a partial at T1 when it comes rather than holding out for the full ladder.

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 2.1% to 20%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 9 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. The wide-stop names are not off limits, they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

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The Week Ahead

The plan week carries 3 earnings prints from the universe: UNH on Tuesday October 13, ASML on Wednesday October 14, TSM on Thursday October 15. Read the trigger, not just the date. A published trigger does not wait for the calendar, so it can fill you days before the report and leave you holding a binary the plan never priced. If you want the setup without the coin flip, wait for the print and re-read the structure on Friday.

Just beyond the plan week: NFLX, NOC and RTX on Tuesday October 20, LRCX on Wednesday October 21, LMT on Thursday October 22. Worth knowing now if you are sizing a position you intend to hold through it.

This Week’s Playbook

Same four regimes as above, in the order they earn risk. Regime decides how much a name is allowed, the level beside it decides when. Detailed setups for the top names follow, and the watchlist carries every level.

Within each group the names are ordered by how close the entry sits to Friday close, nearest first, which is what the Trigger odds column in the tables below reports. Those odds measure distance. A level within two thirds of an average day's range is Likely to be reached, one beyond a day and a third is Unlikely, and anything between the two is an even bet. Reaching a level is not the same as profiting from it. Read the top of each list as where a decision is most likely to be needed, and size it off the stop underneath.

Where that leaves your exposure. Of the 60 names we cover, 10 are set up to be bought into weakness, with a dip band already defined (AMAT, AMD, BRK.B, GOOG, LLY, META, NVDA, QQQ, SPY, XRPI). The other 50, 83 percent of the book, need a level that has not arrived: 22 need a trigger to fire, 25 need a reclaim first, and 3 have no usable room between entry and stop. That is not a forecast, it is what the rules produce in a week like this one. More of the book has a defined dip price than last week and fewer names have a trend worth owning, which is a tape that pays for patience and punishes enthusiasm. Cash is an allocation here rather than the absence of one: it costs nothing while you wait, and it is what lets you take a level when it prints. The S&P still carries its Trend-Hold. The Nasdaq-100 still carries its Trend-Hold. Those are the levels that keep risk on the table, and losing either one changes the posture for everything under it.

Trend-Hold, full risk, but only at a level. On a pullback to support: AMD, AMAT, META, NVDA, BRK.B, GOOG, LLY, QQQ, SPY. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: FFIV, SHOP, PLTR, XOM, AMZN, MSFT, RBRK, OSCR, DG, PANW, AAPL, ASML.
Transitional, half size or nothing. The trend is not confirmed, so a position here is a probe rather than a holding. On a pullback to support: XRPI. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: TSM, WMT, COPX, PINS, COST, TGT, NBIS, SMSN.L, ETHA, INTC.
Repair, a starter only after a reclaim. Basing, not yet trending, nothing until price takes back the trigger printed beside it: AVGO, FTI, IFX.DE, BABA, INTU.
Breakdown, no exposure until a reclaim confirms. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position: ORCL, ADBE, AIXA.DE, GLD, XRH0.L, NFLX, LMT, NKE, SLV, CRWV, and 10 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.
Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: INTC (15% stop for 1% to T1), SMSN.L (10% stop for 1% to T1), NBIS (11% stop for 2% to T1), ETHA (9% stop for 2% to T1), PINS (5% stop for 1% to T1), AMAT (5% stop for 2% to T1)
No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: LRCX (0.8 ATR from its entry to the 308.82 trade stop), UNH (nothing holds its dip band up except the 362.60 trade stop underneath it), XOVR (nothing holds its dip band up except the 21.54 trade stop underneath it). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

5 names taken only from the Trend-Hold group, after dropping anything overbought above RSI 73, anything whose EMA stack is inverted, and anything without at least one average daily range between its entry and its stop. Preference goes first to names sitting within 3 percent of their 20-day EMA, then to the strongest trends by ADX with momentum confirming. Full detail, levels and both stops for each. Every rule above is mechanical, so you can reproduce this list yourself from the levels we publish. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Last close: 229.28

Trade Plan Update - Week of Oct 5 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 19:02:48 GMT

This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 24 and leadership thinned. This is the tape the rules are built for: trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and keep engagement to names still holding a defined level.

Every Sunday we sort the 59 stocks and ETFs we cover into four trend regimes and publish three numbers for each: the price at which the name may be bought, the first level to take something off, and the level where we step aside. They are written before Monday opens, because a price set in advance is worth more than a decision made while a position is already moving.

Where our own record supports a claim, we print the number rather than assert it. Names we tagged avoid that never reclaimed fell 2.6% across 150 cases, against essentially flat for the rest of the universe. Where the evidence is thin, we say so in the same breath.

If a level looks wrong to you, say so in the comments. They shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The indexes held their ground this week while the list underneath them thinned. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 769.64, Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 749.58 is Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns rose from 20 to 24, Repairs fell from 8 to 2, and Trend-Holds rose from 24 to 25. Regime upgrades and downgrades were balanced at 6 apiece, a mixed tape beneath the indexes.

The selling concentrated in PALL -8%, LULU -7%, XRPI -7%, NOC -6% on the downside, while AIXA.DE +14%, IFX.DE +14%, AMAT +11%, LRCX +10% held up against the tape.

Fresh damage showed up in ASTS, DG, RDW and UNH, among others, dropping to Breakdown. Trend-Hold was reclaimed in AIXA.DE, IFX.DE, OSCR and XOM. The index trend is intact but it did not extend this week, and the churn underneath cut both ways. That is a rotation inside an uptrend rather than a new leg of it.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AIXA.DE, IFX.DE, OSCR, XOM. These reclaimed in a week when breadth did not improve, with the benchmarks still in trend. Read that as narrowing leadership rather than a bullish tell. The weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just reclaimed.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: AMZN, CRWV. Basing turned into actual recovery attempts, one notch short of a trend.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: LLY. It lost its trend and now has to re-prove it.
Broke down: ASTS, DG, RDW, UNH, WMT. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list. DG and RDW went from Trend-Hold to Breakdown in a single week, which is a three-regime fall and the sharpest kind of break the framework registers.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Each name is classified into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair or Breakdown) from the 1D EMA stack, with the 1W regime printed beside it in every setup, and every level traces back to a specific indicator. T1 is the first profit-take, T2 the structural objective, T3 the stretch target. Regime sets how much risk a name is allowed and when: Trend-Hold earns full risk but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional gets half or nothing; Repair gets a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown gets none until a reclaim confirms.

Two stops, two jobs, and the tighter one governs. The trade stop is the tactical level where we step aside and let the position go. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the classification flips and the reason to own the name is gone. Both are printed in every table now, trade stop first. For most setups the invalidation was the only number we showed, and it sat a median of 9% away while the typical trade never travelled more than 3.2% against us: only one trade in seven ever reached it. A stop that far out is a thesis level, not risk control, and printing it alone was our mistake.

How long a trade lasts, and when to take something. Every level here is a one-week level: take it during the plan week, and if neither the first target nor a stop has been reached, mark it at Friday close and re-read the structure next issue. Take a partial at T1 when it comes: 51% of 479 filled setups reached it at some point in the week, and taking it there rather than holding to Friday lifts the share that finish green from 41% to 62%. Be clear what that does and does not do. The average filled setup returns -0.6% held to Friday and -0.6% taking T1, so this improves how often you are right and what the middle trade returns, not whether the book makes money.

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 1.3% to 17%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 13 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 1.3% stop carries 13 times the position of a 17% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 59 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

No name in the universe reports during the plan week, so the levels carry without an earnings gap to work around.

Just beyond the plan week: UNH on Tuesday October 13, TSM on Thursday October 15. Worth knowing now if you are sizing a position you intend to hold through it.

This Week’s Playbook

Same four regimes as above, in the order they earn risk. Regime decides how much a name is allowed; the level beside it decides when. Detailed setups for the top names follow, and the watchlist carries every level.

Within each group the names are ordered by how close the entry sits to Friday close, nearest first, which is what the Trigger odds column in the tables below reports. That shows where a decision is likely to be needed, not where the reward is. Of the 464 triggers we have published, the ones we would have called likely were reached 76 percent of the time, even odds 44 percent, and unlikely 15 percent, with roughly half never touched at all. Reaching a level is not the same as profiting from it: of the 181 near ones that filled, the average came back about one percent negative, with about four times in ten closing green. Read the top of each list as the levels most likely to demand a decision, and size them off the stop underneath.

Where that leaves your exposure. Of the 59 names we can trade, 4 are set up to be bought into weakness, with a dip band already defined (AAPL, OSCR, QQQ, SPY). The other 55, 93 percent of the book, need a level that has not arrived: 27 need a trigger to fire, 26 need a reclaim first, and 2 have no usable room between entry and stop. That is not a forecast, it is what the rules produce when most of the universe sits below its own trend, and it means the default position this week is cash. Cash is an allocation here rather than the absence of one: it is the only holding that costs nothing while you wait, and it is what lets you take a level when it finally prints. The S&P still carries its Trend-Hold. The Nasdaq-100 still carries its Trend-Hold. Those are the numbers that would put risk back on the table. Until one of them prints, do not manufacture a trade out of a name you like at a price the plan never gave you.
Trend-Hold, full risk, but only at a level. On a pullback to support: OSCR, AAPL, SPY, QQQ. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: AIXA.DE, RBRK, IFX.DE, SHOP, XOVR, PANW, ASML, LRCX, and 13 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Transitional, half size or nothing. The trend is not confirmed, so a position here is a probe rather than a holding. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: AMZN, COPX, TGT, BRK.B, LLY, CRWV. GOOG, XRPI sits in the skip list below.
Repair, a starter only after a reclaim. Basing, not yet trending; nothing until price takes back the trigger printed beside it: COST, FTI.
Breakdown, no exposure until a reclaim confirms. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position: AVGO, ORCL, PINS, RDW, ASTS, UNH, DG, ADBE, and 16 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: AMAT (21% stop for 2% to T1), META (19% stop for 2% to T1), COPX (5% stop for 1% to T1), LRCX (23% stop for 3% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: XRPI (1.0 ATR to its 7.31 trade stop), GOOG (1.0 ATR to its 325.63 invalidation). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Five names taken only from the Trend-Hold group, after dropping anything overbought above RSI 73, anything whose EMA stack is inverted, and anything without at least one average daily range between its entry and its stop. Preference goes first to names sitting within 3 percent of their 20-day EMA, then to the strongest trends by ADX with momentum confirming, and a name too closely correlated with one already chosen is swapped out for the next candidate. Full detail, levels and both stops for each. Every rule above is mechanical, so you can reproduce this list yourself from the levels we publish. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.

Trade Plan Update - Week of Sep 28 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 19:07:28 GMT

This week’s edge: the confirmation arrived. Breakdowns fell from 23 to 21 and Trend-Holds grew to 24, and this time the indexes came with it, with SPY reclaiming a clean trend and QQQ already holding one. The risk flips from missing the turn to overpaying for it: take the pullbacks where there are any, and leave the extended names alone.

Every Sunday we sort the 60 stocks and ETFs we cover into four trend regimes and publish three numbers for each: where to enter, where the idea is wrong, and where to take the first profit. They are written before Monday opens, because a level set in advance is worth more than a judgement made while a position is moving against you.

The claim underneath that is a narrow one. Knowing where you are wrong travels further than knowing what will rise, and the record bears it out unevenly. Names we tagged avoid that never reclaimed fell 2.8% across 132 cases, against roughly 1% for the rest of the universe. Over thirteen weeks the featured five has not separated itself from five names drawn at random from the same watchlist, and the running record is behind the index. All of it is in the scorecard, and none of it changes what the levels are for.

We wait for a reclaim, so when a beaten-down tape snaps back we lag the names that gapped off the bottom. That is the price of the rule, not a defect in it.

If a level looks wrong to you, say so in the comments. They shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The broad tape broke higher this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 771.35, Trend-Hold and up 1.3% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 744.50 is Trend-Hold and up 3.2% on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved: Breakdowns fell from 23 to 21, Repairs rose from 6 to 8, and Trend-Holds rose from 21 to 24. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 13 to 10, a broad advance that carried the indexes with it.

The biggest moves went to INTC +13%, META +13%, AMD +13%, XRPI +11% on the upside, against NVO -10%, INTU -9%, OSCR -8%, ORCL -7% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in BABA, GLD, RTX and SLV, dropping to Breakdown.

The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMAT, ASML, DG and LLY, among others. That is the confirmation the prior week was waiting on: the reclaim now runs from the individual names all the way up to the indexes themselves.

Broad participation is the strongest version of this signal, but it also means the easy part of the move is behind us. The framework still engages at defined levels: chasing extended names here is how a good tape turns into a bad entry.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMAT, ASML, DG, LLY, LRCX, RDW, SHOP, SMSN.L, SPY. The strongest signal of the week. Several got there in a single week, so the weekly chart still has to hold it.
First repair off the lows: ASTS, COST, CRWV, WMT. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: BRK.B, GOOG, OSCR, XOM. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AMZN, FTI. Downgraded a full step, treat these as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BABA, GLD, RTX, SLV. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list. GLD and SLV went from Trend-Hold to Breakdown in a single week, which is a three-regime fall and the sharpest kind of break the framework registers.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Each name is classified into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair or Breakdown) from the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart, and every level traces back to a specific indicator. T1 is the first profit-take, T2 the structural objective, T3 the stretch target. Regime sets how much risk a name is allowed and when: Trend-Hold earns full risk but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional gets half or nothing; Repair gets a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown gets none until a reclaim confirms.

Two stops, two jobs, and the tighter one governs. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the classification flips and the reason to own the name is gone. Both are printed in every table now, trade stop first. For most setups the invalidation was the only number we showed, and it sat a median of 9.9% away while the typical trade never travelled more than 3.1% against us: only one trade in ten ever reached it. A stop that far out is a thesis level, not risk control, and printing it alone was our mistake.

How long a trade lasts, and when to take something. Every level here is a one-week level: take it during the plan week, and if neither the first target nor a stop has been reached, mark it at Friday close and re-read the structure next issue. That is now also how the scorecard grades us, which was not true before, so the record measured something we never asked you to do. Take a partial at T1 when it comes: 36% of 457 filled setups touched it, and holding them all to Friday instead turned a 53% win rate into 40%.

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 1.3% to 38%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 29 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 1.3% stop carries 29 times the position of a 38% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

These names in the universe report during the plan week - Thursday: NKE

Earnings are binary and the framework does not trade into them. If one of these sits at a defined entry, either take it at reduced size or wait for the print and re-read the structure afterwards. A level that was valid on Friday is not wrong after a gap, it is simply no longer the level.

Read the trigger, not just the date. NKE triggers at 37.08, 3.7% (1.4 ATR) above Friday’s close, with 3 sessions to fire before the print. A published trigger does not wait for the calendar: it can fill you days before the report and leave you holding the binary the rule above tells you to avoid. That is not hypothetical. In the week of 31 August LULU reclaimed its trigger on the Monday and reported on the Thursday: the print gapped it 19.4% lower, straight through a stop that works on closes, for a 16.8% loss on a level we published. If you want the setup without the coin flip, wait for the print and re-read the structure on Friday.

This Week’s Playbook

Within each group the names are ordered by how close the entry sits to Friday close, nearest first, which is what the Trigger odds column in the tables below reports. That shows where a decision is likely to be needed, not where the reward is. Of the 413 triggers we have published, the ones we would have called likely were reached 75 percent of the time, even odds 47 percent, and unlikely 16 percent, with roughly half never touched at all. Reaching a level is not the same as profiting from it: of the 162 near ones that filled, the average came back about one percent negative, with about four times in ten closing green. Read the top of each list as the levels most likely to demand a decision, and size them off the stop underneath.

Where that leaves your exposure. Of the 59 names we can trade, 2 offer a price you could act on at Friday close (LLY, SPY). The other 57, 97 percent of the book, need a level that has not arrived: 26 need a trigger to fire, 27 need a reclaim first, and 4 have no usable room between entry and stop. That is not a forecast, it is what the rules produce when most of the universe sits below its own trend, and it means the default position this week is cash. Cash is an allocation here rather than the absence of one: it is the only holding that costs nothing while you wait, and it is what lets you take a level when it finally prints. The S&P still carries its Trend-Hold. The Nasdaq-100 still carries its Trend-Hold. Those are the numbers that would put risk back on the table. Until one of them prints, do not manufacture a trade out of a name you like at a price the plan never gave you.
Trend-Hold, full risk, but only at a level. On a pullback to support: SPY, LLY. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: AMAT, MSFT, AMD, TSM, LRCX, RDW, AAPL, XOVR, and 12 more carrying the same instruction in the table below. NVDA, QQQ are also Trend-Hold but do not appear above: their entry sits on top of their own stop, so they are in the skip list below.
Transitional, half size or nothing. The trend is not confirmed, so a position here is a probe rather than a holding. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: TGT, BRK.B, XOM, COPX, XRPI, OSCR. GOOG sits in the skip list below.
Repair, a starter only after a reclaim. Basing, not yet trending; nothing until price takes back the trigger printed beside it: IFX.DE, CRWV, AMZN, ASTS, WMT, FTI, COST, UNH.
Breakdown, no exposure until a reclaim confirms. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position: SLV, AVGO, GLD, AIXA.DE, LULU, BABA, PALL, SOFI, and 12 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.

- Tight and paying: RDW (7% stop for 18% to T1)

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: INTC (34% stop for 3% to T1), SHOP (17% stop for 2% to T1), OSCR (9% stop for 1% to T1), LRCX (16% stop for 2% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: QQQ (1.0 ATR to its 725.13 trade stop), NVDA (1.0 ATR to its 217.14 trade stop), GOOG (1.0 ATR to its 325.63 invalidation). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

The five names closest to a defined entry that also clear our room requirement, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. That is a mechanical screen, not a conviction ranking: over thirteen weeks this selection has not separated itself from five names drawn at random from the watchlist below, which is measured in the scorecard. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.

Trade Plan Update - Week of Sept 14 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:01:11 GMT

This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 23 and leadership thinned. This is the tape the rules are built for: trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and keep engagement to names still holding a defined level.

What this is. Every Sunday we sort the 60 stocks and ETFs we cover into trend regimes and publish the three numbers that decide each trade: entry, invalidation, target. You have them before Monday opens, so the decision is made in advance and in writing rather than in the moment. This is a risk discipline first and a stock-picking service second.

What to expect. When a beaten-down market snaps back hard we will lag the names that gapped off the bottom, because the rules wait for a reclaim. In a bad tape that wait is the whole point. You do not get to skip the drawdown and catch the first bounce with one rule, and anyone selling you a framework that does both is selling hindsight.

How to check us. Every level we publish is marked afterwards, win or lose, in the scorecard at the end of each issue, along with the running record against the S&P. Nothing gets quietly dropped.

If you already know the framework, skip to This Week’s Playbook. If a level does not sit right with you, leave a comment: we read every one, and they shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 764.29, Transitional and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 714.88 is Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns rose from 14 to 23, Repairs rose from 7 to 8, and Trend-Holds fell from 19 to 15. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 23 to 7, a clear risk-off tilt. The selling concentrated in SHOP -11%, BIDU -8%, NVO -8%, RBRK -7% on the downside, while AMD +8%, INTC +7%, FFIV +5%, META +5% held up against the tape. Fresh damage showed up in ADBE, BIDU, CRWV and INTU, among others, dropping to Breakdown. Trend-Hold was reclaimed in AMD, FFIV, INTC and META, among others. That is broader than a rotation: 23 of 60 names now sit in Breakdown and the bucket grew by 9 in a week. It is not yet index-level capitulation, but it is no longer something happening only to the laggards. With trends rolling over, most pullback prices now sit too close to the level that says the idea is wrong, so the triggers that survive are mostly on strength rather than on weakness.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, FFIV, INTC, META, XOM. These reclaimed while the benchmarks did not, so they are isolated pockets of strength rather than the leadership of an advancing tape. A reclaim into a falling market is the easiest kind to give back, and the weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just took.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: IFX.DE. Basing turned into an actual recovery attempt.
First repair off the lows: AIXA.DE. A damaged name showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: COPX, DG, FTI, NVDA, PLTR, RBRK, SPY, TGT. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: GLD, LLY, LRCX, RTX, UNH. Treat these as damaged until reclaimed, and note GLD fell two regimes in one week rather than one.
Broke down: ADBE, BIDU, CRWV, INTU, NFLX, NVO, PALL, SHOP, SLV, SOFI. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the classification flips and the reason to own the name is gone. One manages risk, the other manages conviction.

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 0.9% to 39%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 43 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 0.9% stop carries 43 times the position of a 39% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

No name in the universe reports during the plan week, so the levels carry without an earnings gap to work around.

This Week’s Playbook

Within each group the names are ordered by how far the entry sits from Friday close, nearest first. That ordering tells you where a decision is likely to be needed this week and nothing more. Across the 364 triggers we have published, those within half an average daily range were reached four times in five, while those more than one and a half ranges away were reached about one time in seven; roughly half of everything we print is never touched at all.

What proximity does not tell you is whether the trade pays, and we would rather say so than let the ordering imply it. Of the 140 near triggers that have filled, the average came back about one percent negative, with fewer than four in ten closing green. We do not yet have enough fills further out to draw any conclusion about them. So read the top of each list as the levels most likely to demand a decision, not as the ones most likely to reward it, and size every one of them off the stop underneath.

Trend-Hold, full risk, but only at a level. On a pullback to support: BRK.B. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: AMD, AAPL, FFIV, INTC, XOM, META, OSCR, TSM, and 4 more carrying the same instruction in the table below. MSFT, XOVR are also Trend-Hold but do not appear above: their entry sits on top of their own stop, so they are in the skip list below.
Transitional, half size or nothing. The trend is not confirmed, so a position here is a probe rather than a holding. On a pullback, and then only at half size: ORCL, IFX.DE, DG. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: SPY, AMZN, FTI, NVDA, ASML, PLTR, COPX, TGT, and 3 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Repair, a starter only after a reclaim. Basing, not yet trending; nothing until price takes back the trigger printed beside it: AIXA.DE, GLD, LRCX, GOOG, LLY, RTX, AMAT, UNH.
Breakdown, no exposure until a reclaim confirms. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position: CRWV, WMT, ADBE, NFLX, SHOP, SLV, INTU, RDW, and 14 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.

- Tight and paying: BRK.B (2% stop for 5% to T1), SPY (1% stop for 2% to T1)

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: XRPI (35% stop for 3% to T1), TGT (8% stop for 1% to T1), COPX (6% stop for 1% to T1), NBIS (39% stop for 7% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: PLTR (0.9 ATR to its 164.55 invalidation), XOVR (1.0 ATR to its 20.20 trade stop), MSFT (1.0 ATR to its 477.15 trade stop). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Where that leaves your exposure. Of the 59 names we can trade, 4 offer a price you could act on at Friday close (BRK.B, DG, IFX.DE, ORCL). The other 55, 93 percent of the book, need a level that has not arrived: 23 need a trigger to fire, 30 need a reclaim first, and 2 have no usable room between entry and stop. That is not a forecast, it is what the rules produce when most of the universe sits below its own trend, and it means the default position this week is cash. Cash is an allocation here rather than the absence of one: it is the only holding that costs nothing while you wait, and it is what lets you take a level when it finally prints. The S&P regains its trend on a daily close above 765.02, +0.1% from Friday. The Nasdaq-100 still carries its Trend-Hold. Those are the numbers that would put risk back on the table. Until one of them prints, do not manufacture a trade out of a name you like at a price the plan never gave you.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.

Trade Plan Update - Week of Sept 7 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 17:37:54 GMT

This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 14 and leadership thinned. This is the tape the rules are built for: trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and keep engagement to names still holding a defined level.

How to check us. Every level we publish is marked afterwards, win or lose, in the scorecard at the end of each issue, along with the running record against the S&P. Nothing gets quietly dropped.

If you already know the framework, skip to This Week’s Playbook. If a level does not sit right with you, leave a comment: we read every one, and they shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The indexes held their ground this week while the list underneath them thinned. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 770.19, Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 718.96 is Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns rose from 10 to 14, Repairs fell from 12 to 7, and Trend-Holds held at 19. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 13 to 12, a close count, but the damage landed at the bad end: the Breakdown bucket grew by 4.

The selling concentrated in LULU -17%, PINS -12%, PANW -10%, ADBE -9% on the downside, while DG +8%, NBIS +8%, ASTS +7%, INTC +7% held up against the tape.

Fresh damage showed up in AIXA.DE, AVGO, ITA and LMT, among others, dropping to Breakdown. Trend-Hold was reclaimed in DG, NBIS, OSCR and RBRK, among others.

The index trend is intact but it did not extend this week, and the churn underneath cut both ways. That is a rotation inside an uptrend rather than a new leg of it.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: DG, NBIS, OSCR, RBRK, TSM. In a week of net downgrades this short list is what is holding the index up, which is what narrowing leadership looks like from the inside rather than a bullish tell. The weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just reclaimed.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: CRWV. An early bounce that still has to prove itself.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: INTC, LRCX, META, SOFI. Basing turned into actual recovery attempts, one notch short of a trend.
First repair off the lows: BIDU, NVO. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: ADBE, AMZN, PALL, PANW, SHOP. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: INTU, NFLX. Downgraded a full step, treat these as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AIXA.DE, AVGO, ITA, LMT, LULU, PINS. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 1.7% to 40%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 24 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 1.7% stop carries 24 times the position of a 40% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

US markets are closed Monday September 7, so this is a 4-day week. Fewer sessions means less time for a trigger to fill and less time for a thesis to prove itself, so treat every level below as having a shorter fuse than usual.

These names in the universe report during the plan week:

Thursday: Adobe & Oracle

That one matters more than the rest of the list, because you have a live instruction on it this week: ADBE is tagged “Wait for breakout”. Take the print as the risk event it is, size for it, or stand aside until it is out.

Read the trigger, not just the date. ADBE triggers at 273.04, 2.5% (0.6 ATR) above Friday’s close, with 2 sessions to fire before the print. A published trigger does not wait for the calendar: it can fill you days before the report and leave you holding the binary the rule above tells you to avoid. That is not hypothetical. LULU reclaimed its trigger on the Monday of last week and reported on the Thursday: the print gapped it 19.4% lower, straight through a stop that works on closes, for a 16.8% loss on a level we published. If you want the setup without the coin flip, wait for the print and re-read the structure on Friday.

This Week’s Playbook

Trend-Hold, full risk, but only at a level. On a pullback to support: AAPL, BRK.B, GLD, QQQ, SPY. Only on strength, above the trigger in the table: DG, ETHA, FTI, NBIS, NVDA, OSCR, PLTR, RBRK, and 4 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Transitional, half size or nothing. The trend is not confirmed, so a position here is a probe rather than a holding: ADBE, AMD, AMZN, ASML, CRWV, FFIV, INTC, LLY, and 12 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Repair, a starter only after a reclaim. Basing, not yet trending; nothing until price takes back the trigger printed beside it: AMAT, BIDU, GOOG, IFX.DE, INTU, NFLX, NVO.
Breakdown, no exposure until a reclaim confirms. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position: AIXA.DE, ASTS, AVGO, BABA, COST, ITA, LMT, LULU, and 5 more carrying the same instruction in the table below.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.

- Tight and paying: GLD (2% stop for 4% to T1)

- Wide but paying, so size small: INTC (21% stop for 32% to T1)

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: SLV (11% stop for 1% to T1), META (13% stop for 1% to T1), XRPI (35% stop for 3% to T1), SOFI (13% stop for 1% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: COPX (1.0 ATR to its 87.42 trade stop), MSFT (1.0 ATR to its 483.56 trade stop), XOM (1.0 ATR to its 154.45 invalidation). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Trade Plan Update - Week of Aug 31 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:08:52 GMT

This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 10 and leadership thinned. This is the tape the rules are built for: trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and keep engagement to names still holding a defined level.

How to check us. Every level we publish is marked afterwards, win or lose, in the scorecard at the end of each issue, along with the running record against the S&P. Nothing gets quietly dropped.

If you already know the framework, skip to This Week’s Playbook. If a level does not sit right with you, leave a comment: we read every one, and they shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The indexes held their ground this week while the list underneath them thinned. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 769.38, Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 716.45 is Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns rose from 8 to 10, Repairs rose from 9 to 12, and Trend-Holds fell from 20 to 19. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 15 to 9, a clear risk-off tilt. The selling concentrated in ASTS -15%, RDW -9%, RBRK -7%, LLY -6% on the downside, while MSFT +6%, ADBE +6%, PALL +5%, META +5% held up against the tape. Fresh damage showed up in ASTS, NVO and RDW, dropping to Breakdown.

Trend-Hold was reclaimed in AAPL, AMZN, BRK.B and NVDA, among others. The Nasdaq-100 reclaimed its trend this week, joining the S&P, which was already there, but the list underneath did not, and the Trend-Hold count still fell.

An index that goes up while its members go down is being carried by a narrowing group of the largest names, which is a weaker signal than it looks on the chart. Engage at defined levels and treat the index reclaim as permission to be patient, not as confirmation that the broad tape has turned.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AAPL, AMZN, BRK.B, NVDA, PALL, PANW, QQQ. In a week of net downgrades this short list is what is holding the index up, which is what narrowing leadership looks like from the inside rather than a bullish tell. The weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just reclaimed.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: ORCL. Basing turned into an actual recovery attempt.
First repair off the lows: META. A damaged name showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: DG, LLY, OSCR, RBRK, SLV, TSM, XOM. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AMAT, ITA, LRCX, SOFI, XRH0.L. Downgraded a full step, treat these as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: ASTS, NVO, RDW. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list. RDW went from Trend-Hold to Breakdown in a single week, which is a three-regime fall and the sharpest kind of break the framework registers.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 1.8% to 36%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 20 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 1.8% stop carries 20 times the position of a 36% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

These names in the universe report during the plan week:

Tuesday: PANW
Wednesday: AVGO
Thursday: LULU

Only one of our two calendars had coverage this far out, so these dates are unconfirmed. Check the company before you size into any of them.

Those matter more than the rest of the list, because you have a live instruction on them this week: AVGO is tagged “Starter on reclaim”, LULU is tagged “Starter on reclaim” and PANW is tagged “Breakout only”. Take the print as the risk event it is, size for it, or stand aside until it is out.

And one that just reported. Last week’s issue flagged NVDA as the plan week’s earnings risk and published it as a breakout above 215.53. That trigger fired on Monday’s opening print, two days before the report, so anyone taking the level as published was long into the binary rather than standing aside from it. The print landed well: NVDA gapped 6.3% on Thursday and ran to 230.47. It then gave most of it back on Friday and closed the week at 217.54, up 0.9% from the trigger. Taking a binary and being right about it paid nine tenths of a percent, which is the honest advertisement for sizing these small.

That matters this week because NVDA is one of the five detailed setups below, and its breakout trigger of 230.47 is exactly Thursday’s post-earnings high, 5.9% above Friday’s close. The level is real, but you are being asked to buy above the top tick of the gap day, and the catalyst that made it is already spent. Note too that NVDA reclaimed its Trend-Hold on that print while the rest of the complex went the other way: AMAT and LRCX both fell into Repair and TSM cooled to Transitional in the same week. The AI trade did not broaden, it narrowed to the one name that reported.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. Detailed setups for the top names follow; the watchlist covers the rest.

Closest to a defined entry: BRK.B, QQQ, GLD, FTI, NVDA, AMZN and AAPL. QQQ and GLD can be taken on a dip. The rest have no pullback that clears their stop, so their only trigger is on strength above Friday’s close.
Clean leaders, but extended: TGT, PLTR, COPX. Strong trends, but each sits far enough above its 1D EMA20 that the support it would pull back to is also its trade stop, so a dip there is not an entry. That is why these read Breakout only in the table: the only defined trade is on strength, or you wait for the trend to reset and the name to re-qualify.
Most dangerous chase setups: ETHA, MSFT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ASTS, BABA, BIDU, COST, CRWV, NKE, NOC, NVO, RDW, WMT. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: SLV (20% stop for 2% to T1), XRPI (35% stop for 4% to T1), COPX (20% stop for 2% to T1), NFLX (12% stop for 2% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: OSCR (0.6 ATR to its 29.46 trade stop), PINS (0.9 ATR to its 22.65 invalidation), XOVR (1.0 ATR to its 19.94 trade stop), SPY (1.0 ATR to its 748.80 trade stop), XOM (1.0 ATR to its 149.09 invalidation). Measured to whichever stop is nearer, which for some of these is the trade stop rather than the invalidation printed in the table. Entering there puts you at the exit before the trade has moved.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Trade Plan Update, Week of August 24, 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 16:00:06 GMT

This week’s edge: the uptrend lost ground. Trend-Holds fell from 30 to 20 of 60, and downgrades outnumbered upgrades 21 to 9. This is the tape the rules are built for: trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and keep engagement to names still holding a defined level.

How to check us. Every level we publish is marked afterwards, win or lose, in the scorecard at the end of each issue, along with the running record against the S&P. Nothing gets quietly dropped.

If you already know the framework, skip to This Week’s Playbook. If a level does not sit right with you, leave a comment: we read every one, and they shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 765.72, Trend-Hold and down 1.4% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 713.44 is Transitional and down 2.4% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns rose from 7 to 8, Repairs rose from 5 to 9, and Trend-Holds fell from 30 to 20. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 21 to 9, a clear risk-off tilt.

The selling concentrated in NBIS -21%, CRWV -17%, INTC -12%, RDW -11% on the downside, while XRPI +37%, ETHA +29%, COPX +10%, SLV +7% held up against the tape.

Fresh damage showed up in BABA, COST, CRWV and NOC, among others, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in ADBE, ETHA, LLY and SLV. This reads as a defensive rotation rather than a systemic stress event, but it changes what a defined entry looks like.

With trends rolling over, most pullback prices now sit too close to the level that says the idea is wrong, so the triggers that survive are mostly on strength rather than on weakness.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: ADBE, ETHA, LLY, SLV. The exception in a week of downgrades, and worth more for it. The weekly chart still has to hold what the daily just reclaimed.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: PALL, XRPI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: XRH0.L. Basing turned into an actual recovery attempt.
First repair off the lows: LULU, NVO. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMD, AMZN, ASML, ITA, LMT, LRCX, NBIS, NVDA, PANW, PINS, QQQ, RTX. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AIXA.DE, AVGO, INTC, ORCL. Downgraded a full step, treat these as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BABA, COST, CRWV, NOC, WMT. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list. CRWV and NOC went from Trend-Hold to Breakdown in a single week, which is a three-regime fall and the sharpest kind of break the framework registers.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from 2% to 35%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking 19 times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 2% stop carries 19 times the position of a 35% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

These names in the universe report during the plan week:

Wednesday: NVDA

That one matters more than the rest of the list, because you have a live instruction on it this week: NVDA is tagged “Wait for breakout”. Take the print as the risk event it is, size for it, or stand aside until it is out.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. Detailed setups for the top names follow; the watchlist covers the rest.

Closest to a defined entry: TSM, SPY, DG, RDW, XOVR, MSFT. SPY can be taken on a dip. The rest have no pullback that clears their stop, so their only trigger is on strength above Friday’s close.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: PLTR, RBRK, XOM, OSCR, LLY. Clean trends with room to run, but wait for the pullback.
Most dangerous chase setups: ETHA, TGT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BABA, BIDU, COST, CRWV, META, NKE, NOC, WMT. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.
Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: AMAT (16% stop for 1% to T1), XRH0.L (12% stop for 1% to T1), NFLX (14% stop for 1% to T1), AMD (13% stop for 1% to T1)

- No usable room between entry and stop, skip entirely: NBIS (0.4 ATR), ADBE (0.5 ATR), ASML (0.8 ATR), LRCX (0.9 ATR), GLD (1.0 ATR). A fill at the bottom of these bands is already at the exit.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), Last close: 418.95

Setup: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. held its Trend-Hold, little changed on the week. Full Trend-Hold on both the daily and weekly, the cleanest structure in the framework, with first support at the 1D EMA20 (418.06). Daily RSI 50.4, MACD bullish fading; the trend is intact but uncommitted, favor a defined pullback.

Market view: the foundry anchoring the AI supply chain, the most resilient chip structure; tracking the broad tape this week.
Entries:

Trade Plan Update | Week of August 17 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 16:55:31 GMT

This week’s edge: the uptrend held its ground without extending it. SPY and QQQ kept a clean Trend-Hold, Trend-Holds across the universe moved to 30 of 60 and Breakdowns rose from 6 to 7, but the leaders did the resting while damaged names did the moving. A flat index week with churn underneath is where chasing costs the most: keep taking the defined entries, and let the rest come to you.

Welcome to IWP’s weekly trade plan update.

How to check us. Every level is scored afterwards from the entry as published, win or lose, in the scorecard at the end. Last week lost money and the full record is down there with the workings.

If you already know the framework, skip to This Week’s Playbook. If a level does not sit right with you, leave a comment: we read every one, and they shape what gets covered.

Market Conditions

The broad tape steadied this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 776.34, Trend-Hold and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 731.07 is Trend-Hold and up 1.1% on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved on balance: Breakdowns rose from 6 to 7, Repairs fell from 7 to 5, and Trend-Holds rose from 27 to 30. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 13 to 9, though the movement was underneath the surface rather than in the indexes.

The biggest moves went to NBIS +48%, OSCR +17%, CRWV +16%, SMSN.L +16% on the upside, against AVGO -8%, LULU -7%, AMAT -6%, BIDU -6% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in LULU, NVO and PALL, dropping to Breakdown.

The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMD, CRWV, FTI and LRCX, among others. The index trend is intact but it did not extend this week, and the churn underneath cut both ways. That is a rotation inside an uptrend rather than a new leg of it.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, CRWV, FTI, LRCX, NBIS, NOC, OSCR, SMSN.L. The strongest signal of the week. Several got there in a single week, so the weekly chart still has to hold it.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: WMT. An early bounce that still has to prove itself.
Up a step from Repair into Transitional: COST, NFLX, ORCL. Basing turned into actual recovery attempts, one notch short of a trend.
First repair off the lows: XRH0.L. A damaged name showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMAT, AVGO, BRK.B, LLY. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: ETHA, GOOG. Treat these as damaged until reclaimed, and note GOOG fell two regimes in one week rather than one.
Broke down: LULU, NVO, PALL. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Size by risk, not by dollars. Stop distances in this issue run from under 1% to over 40%, so the same dollar amount in two names can mean risking sixty times as much on one as the other. Decide what a single losing trade may cost you, say half a percent of the account, and divide it by the distance from entry to stop. A 4% stop carries eight times the position of a 32% stop for identical risk. The wide-stop names are not off limits; they are simply small.

This update ranks 60 names. You are not meant to trade all of them, or even most of them. Most weeks a handful sit at a level worth acting on and the rest are there so you can check our work.

The Week Ahead

These names in the universe report during the plan week:

Tuesday: BIDU | Wednesday: TGT | Thursday: BABA, WMT

Those matter more than the rest of the list, because you have a live instruction on them this week: BABA is tagged “Wait / half size”, TGT is tagged “Buy dips” and WMT is tagged “Wait / half size”. Take the print as the risk event it is, size for it, or stand aside until it is out.

Just beyond the plan week: NVDA on Wednesday August 26. Worth knowing now if you are sizing a position you intend to hold through it.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. Detailed setups for the top names follow; the watchlist covers the rest.

Closest to a defined entry: DG, AMZN, SPY, TSM, PINS, QQQ, plus 2 more tagged Near entry below. Price is sitting on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and you are not chasing.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: MSFT, PANW, LMT, TGT, SHOP, RBRK, plus 6 more tagged Buy dips below. Clean trends with room to run, but wait for the pullback.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. Nothing in the universe is overbought enough to warn you off, which tells you the leaders have been resting rather than running.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BIDU, LULU, META, NKE, NVO, PALL, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
Where the payoff justifies the stop. A wide stop is not a bad setup, it is a small one, but some names are not paying enough to be worth any size at all.
Tight and paying: RDW (5% stop for 19% to T1), PINS (2% stop for 7% to T1), XOVR (4% stop for 9% to T1), NOC (2% stop for 4% to T1)

- Wide but paying, so size small: PLTR (9% stop for 15% to T1)

- Not paying for the risk, quarter size or skip: ORCL (23% stop for 2% to T1), INTC (19% stop for 3% to T1), AIXA.DE (23% stop for 3% to T1), WMT (7% stop for 1% to T1)

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Dollar General Corp. (DG), Last close: 123.28

Setup: Dollar General Corp. held its Trend-Hold, down 3% on the week. 1D Trend-Hold inside a Transitional 1W; 1D EMA20 at 123.05 and EMA50 at 120.53 are the structural supports. Daily RSI 51.9, MACD bearish stabilizing; constructive but unhurried, let price come to the levels.

Market view: deep-discount retail, a read on low-end consumer health; trailing the broad tape this week.

Trade Plan Update - Week of Aug 10 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 15:49:56 GMT

This week’s edge: the confirmation arrived. Breadth broadened out as Breakdowns fell from 16 to 6 and Trend-Holds grew to 27, and this time the indexes came with it, with both SPY and QQQ reclaiming a clean trend. The risk flips from missing the turn to overpaying for it: take the pullbacks, leave the extended names alone.

Market Conditions

The broad tape broke higher this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 773.26, Trend-Hold and up 3.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 723.03 is Trend-Hold and up 5.1% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved: Breakdowns fell from 16 to 6, Repairs fell from 12 to 7, and Trend-Holds rose from 15 to 27. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 27 to 4, a broad advance that carried the indexes with it. The advance was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: RDW +58%, PLTR +40%, SHOP +29%, CRWV +26% to the upside, against OSCR -11%, XRPI -4%, FTI -3%, XRH0.L -2% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in BIDU and XRH0.L, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMAT, ASML, COPX and GLD, among others. That is the confirmation the prior week was waiting on: the reclaim now runs from the individual names all the way up to the indexes themselves. Broad participation is the strongest version of this signal, but it also means the easy part of the move is behind us. The framework still engages at defined levels: chasing extended names here is how a good tape turns into a bad entry.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMAT, ASML, COPX, GLD, LLY, NVDA, PLTR, QQQ, RBRK, RDW, SHOP, TSM, XOVR. The strongest signal of the week. Several got there in a single week, so the weekly chart still has to hold it.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AIXA.DE, CRWV, ETHA, INTC, LRCX, LULU, NOC, NVO, PALL, SLV, SOFI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: ASTS, NFLX, ORCL. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: OSCR. It lost its trend and now has to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: NBIS. Downgraded a full step, treat it as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, XRH0.L. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.

How Last Week’s Setups Played Out

We publish the levels in advance so they can be judged afterwards. That cuts both ways, so here is the whole scorecard, not the flattering half of it.

The featured five did their job.

SPY. The plan wanted the breakout above 755.58. It triggered on Monday and tagged the 758.45 first target the same day, closing the week at 773.26.
AVGO. Monday’s low at 374.61 carried price back through the 381.00 to 387.70 pullback band, and from there it cleared the first target at 407.52 and the second at 416.02 by Tuesday, closing at 427.76.
PANW. The pullback band at 327.25 to 330.27 filled on Monday’s low of 330.00, the 368.80 first target was reached on Wednesday, and price closed at 363.86.
BRK.B. The breakout above 516.66 triggered and price closed at 521.80. The 526.44 first target is still live, with the week’s high at 525.44.
ITA. The honest one of the group. The 251.49 breakout doubled as the first target, so it triggered and immediately hit, ran to 256.60, then gave the move back to close at 250.75. When entry and target are the same level, you get a round trip rather than a trade, and that is a weakness in the setup rather than a feature of it.

Four of five reached a first target and none came near an invalidation, which averaged out to about 5.9% against the S&P’s 3.5%. Worth keeping in proportion: in a week this strong, a basket of long setups reaching T1 is a good deal closer to what the tape was handing out than to genius. The real test of this section is the first flat week, not this one.

Now the part that cost you. The framework’s avoid list was the best-performing group in the universe. Those sixteen names averaged roughly 15.6% on the week, and four of them, RDW at 58%, PLTR at 40%, SHOP at 29% and CRWV at 26%, were the biggest gainers we cover.

A rule that waits for a reclaim will never put you in the first leg off a bottom, and in a violent snapback week that is exactly what it costs. The other side of the ledger is why the rule exists at all. RDW and CRWV had sat on the avoid list for six straight weeks before this one, and over that stretch they fell 67% and 48% from their summer highs. The rule that kept you out of those six weeks is the same rule that kept you out of this one. You do not get to skip the drawdown and catch the first bounce with a single rule, and anyone selling you a framework that does both is selling hindsight.

One outright bad call. OSCR sat on last week’s Trend-Hold list tagged “buy dips” and fell 10.6% to 27.90, straight through the 27.81 to 28.08 stop band. If you took it, the stop did its job and you are out. It is now Transitional and has to re-prove itself before it earns a place on any list again.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.

Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.

Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Closest to a defined entry: GOOG, AMAT, XOM, LLY, TSM, ASML, plus 4 more tagged Near entry below. Price is already sitting on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and you are not chasing. Near is not the same as cheap, so read the stop on each one before sizing. One caveat on that list. AMAT, LLY, TSM and ASML reclaimed their trend from well below, so the EMA200 invalidation sits 13% to 24% away. The entry is close, the thesis stop is not. Size those to the tactical stop rather than the regime level, or take half.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: PANW, AMZN, LMT, TGT, SHOP, XOVR, plus 1 more tagged Near entry below. Clean trends with room to run, but wait for the pullback.
Most dangerous chase setups: MSFT, RTX. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BIDU, META, NKE, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Last close: 353.47

Trade Plan Update - Week of August 3 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 02 Aug 2026 16:38:11 GMT

Welcome to IWP’s weekly trade plan update!

Every Sunday, we take the 60 stocks and ETFs we cover, classify each one by trend regime, and publish the levels that decide the trade. Where to enter, where the thesis breaks, and where to take profit.

Thank you for being a paid subscriber. If you’re familiar with our framework, scroll down to see this week’s Top 5 Actionable Setups (here are last week’s in case you forgot).

We publish this on Sundays so you can plan ahead instead of chasing it throughout the week. This isn’t a market view you could find anywhere, but rather the specific levels we are watching based on our IWP framework.

Last week 24 names sat in Breakdown and the guidance was to wait for a reclaim instead of chasing the falling leaders.

This week that count dropped to 16.

If a level or a call does not sit right with you, leave a comment and tell us. We read every response, and your questions shape what gets covered.

Subscribe now

This Week’s Edge

The beaten-down growth and AI names rebounded (led by , , and ) and regime breadth improved as Breakdowns fell from 24 to 16. But, the broad indexes have not confirmed the turn yet, which we hope to see this coming week.

Respect the reclaim: engage the names that actually reclaimed their trend on pullbacks, and still demand price confirmation before chasing the bounce.

Market Conditions

The broad market steadied this week. The S&P 500 closed at 747.03, reached Trend-Hold, and was up 1.1% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 at 687.99 is Transitional and roughly flat on the week.

Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved:

Breakdowns decreased from 24 to 16
Repairs grew from 8 to 12
Trend-Holds from 11 to 15.

Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 17 to 8, a recovery week rather than fresh liquidation.

The rebound was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: MSFT +22%, AMZN +17%, ORCL +13%, +12% to the upside, against AIXA.DE -14%, -9%, IFX.DE -8%, -7% on the downside.

Fresh damage showed up in AIXA.DE, dropping to Breakdown.

The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMZN, , DG, GOOG.

Last week was more of a relief rally in beaten-down leadership. We’re not at broad, confirmed strength yet. The framework still requires forward prices to confirm at defined levels. A reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMZN, AVGO, DG, GOOG, MSFT, OSCR, PANW, PINS, SPY. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: ADBE, BABA, INTU. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: BIDU, COST, LULU, PALL, XRH0.L. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AAPL, FTI, LLY, NVDA. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: IFX.DE, LRCX, NVO. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AIXA.DE. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: MSFT +22%, AMZN +17%, ORCL +13%, GOOG +12% to the upside; AIXA.DE -14%, AMD -9%, IFX.DE -8%, AAPL -7% to the downside.

The Week Ahead

Two things can move these names before the levels do.

Earnings. Quite a few of the 60 companies covered report this week:
- Monday:
- Tuesday:
- Wednesday: $IFX.DE
- Thursday:
- Saturday: BRK.B (expected)

Earnings are binary and the framework does not trade into them. If a name sits at a defined entry and reports this week, either take the setup at a reduced size or wait for the print and re-read the structure afterward. BRK.B is one of this week’s featured setups and reports Saturday, so the level work holds all week and the risk lands after the close.

Jobs, Friday. The July employment report lands Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the only top-tier macro print of the week. There is no Fed meeting until September 15 and 16, so rate policy is not a live variable in this week. The labor data is what can reprice the long end and, through it, the high-multiple names that just bounced.

Neither changes the plan. Both may change the sizing.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Our framework is rules-based and level-driven.

We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the Daily EMA stack, cross-checked against the Weekly chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level.

T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout. Transitional names take half size or wait. Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim. Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.

Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position and the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.

This Week’s Playbook

The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: SPY, ITA, AVGO, PANW, BRK.B. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: RTX, XOM, AMZN. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: MSFT. Overbought leaders. The trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: AIXA.DE, ASTS, CRWV, GLD, META, NFLX, NKE, ORCL, PLTR, RDW, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XOVR, XRPI. No long exposure. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position right now.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Last close: 747.03

Setup: reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four daily EMAs with the EMA20 at 743.03 as first support. Daily RSI at 53.1 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish but stabilizing. In this digestive environment, act only at defined levels. The thesis breaks on a daily close below 707.06 (5.4% below current), which would shift the shifting regime to Transitional.

Market view: SPDR represents the broad market itself. It shows improving breadth and upgrades leading downgrades 17 to 8.
Entries:
- Pullback: 727.63 to 746.28 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting right above the upper end)
- Breakout: above 755.58 (20-day high)
Targets:
- T1: 758.45 (1D 60-bar high)
- T2: 800.31 (1D Fib ext 200)
- T3: 826.19 (1D Fib ext 261.8)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 729.10 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 2.4% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 707.06 (1D EMA200). A break here shifts this to Transitional.

If you’re already holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (743.03). Take partials at T1 (758.45).
If you’re not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (743.03) or above 755.58.

iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF (ITA), Last close: 239.66

Setup: iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense held its Trend-Hold, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 237.61 as first support. Daily RSI 53.5 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish expanding; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 222.62 (7.1% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Market view: an aerospace and defense basket, riding the defense-spend trend. Seems to be moving with the broad market this week.
Entries:

Trade Plan Update - Week of July 27 2026

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 14:41:58 GMT

This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 24 and leadership thinned. Trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and lean on the names that are actually holding and reclaiming their trends.

Market Conditions

The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 738.93, Transitional and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 684.23 is Transitional and down 1.6% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns went from 18 to 24, Repairs from 13 to 8, and Trend-Holds from 12 to 10. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 15 to 9, a clear risk-off tilt. The selling concentrated in PANW -10%, ORCL -9%, SHOP -8%, META -8% on the downside, while LMT +15%, RTX +10%, FTI +7%, XOM +7% held up against the tape. Fresh damage showed up in AMZN, BABA, GOOG, META, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in BRK.B, ITA, LMT, NVDA. This reads as a defensive rotation, not a systemic stress event. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: BRK.B, ITA, LMT, NVDA. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AVGO, COPX, IFX.DE, NBIS. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: NOC. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: NVO, PANW, UNH. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: ADBE, DG, INTC. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AMZN, BABA, GOOG, META, MSFT, NKE, PLTR, SHOP, XOVR. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: LMT +15%, RTX +10%, FTI +7%, XOM +7% to the upside; PANW -10%, ORCL -9%, SHOP -8%, META -8% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: BRK.B, NVDA, TGT, ITA, LLY. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: AAPL, XOM, FTI. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: RTX. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: AMZN, ASTS, BABA, BIDU, COST, CRWV, GLD, GOOG, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NKE, ORCL, PALL, PLTR, RDW, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XOVR, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK.B), Last close: 494.93

Setup: Berkshire Hathaway reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. Daily and weekly are aligned in Trend-Hold; price rides above the entire 1D EMA stack and the 1D EMA20 at 492.78 is the first line to defend. Daily RSI 53.4 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the structure holds, let the level trigger the entry not the clock. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 488.98 (1.2% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Market view: diversified quality, a defensive market anchor; in step with the market this week.

Trade Plan Update - Week 3 - July 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 17:04:05 GMT

The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 743.29, Transitional and down 1.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 695.33 is Transitional and down 4.2% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns went from 15 to 18, Repairs from 10 to 13, and Trend-Holds from 19 to 12. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 7 to 22, a clear risk-off tilt.

The pressure hit the highest-beta growth and AI names: PANW +10%, XOM +6%, ADBE +6%, INTU +6% to the upside, against ASTS -21%, NBIS -19%, CRWV -18%, RDW -17% on the downside.

Fresh damage showed up in BIDU, COPX, LMT, LULU, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in DG, NVO, XOM. This reads as a defensive rotation, not a systemic stress event. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: DG, NVO, XOM. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: ADBE. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: INTU, MSFT, PLTR. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMAT, AMD, FFIV, NVDA, OSCR, QQQ, RBRK, SPY. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AVGO, GOOG, IFX.DE, NBIS, NKE, SMSN.L, XOVR. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, COPX, LMT, LULU, NOC, PALL, SOFI. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: PANW +10%, XOM +6%, ADBE +6%, INTU +6% to the upside; ASTS -21%, NBIS -19%, CRWV -18%, RDW -17% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: AMZN, RTX, LLY, UNH, FTI. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: AAPL. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ASTS, BIDU, COPX, COST, CRWV, GLD, LMT, LULU, NFLX, NOC, ORCL, PALL, RDW, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Last close: 247.23

Setup: Amazon.com held its Trend-Hold, little changed on the week. Full Trend-Hold on both the daily and weekly, the cleanest structure in the framework, with first support at the 1D EMA20 (245.75). Daily RSI 51.3 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; the trend is intact but uncommitted, favor a defined pullback. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 235.53 (4.7% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Market view: megacap cloud and consumer, benefits as growth leadership broadens; tracking the broad tape this week.

Weekly Trade Plan Update - Week of July 13, 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:54:34 GMT

This week’s edge: the beaten-down growth and AI names rebounded (BABA, META, AVGO led) and regime breadth improved as Breakdowns fell from 16 to 15, but the broad indexes have not confirmed the turn. Respect the reclaim: engage the names that actually reclaimed their trend on pullbacks, and still demand price confirmation before chasing the bounce.

Market Conditions

The broad tape steadied this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 754.95, Trend-Hold and up 1.4% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 725.51 is Trend-Hold and up 1.8% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved: Breakdowns went from 16 to 15, Repairs from 10 to 10, and Trend-Holds from 14 to 19.

Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 13 to 9, a recovery week rather than fresh liquidation. The rebound was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: BABA +17%, META +15%, AVGO +11%, CRWV +9% to the upside, against ASTS -14%, AIXA.DE -11%, RDW -10%, INTC -9% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in ASTS, MSFT, NFLX, PLTR, dropping to Breakdown.

The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMD, AMZN, AVGO, FTI. This reads as a relief rally in beaten-down leadership, not broad, confirmed strength. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, AMZN, AVGO, FTI, META, NVDA, QQQ, TGT. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: NKE. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: BABA, BIDU, ETHA, PALL. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: BRK.B, ITA, NVO. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AIXA.DE, LMT. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: ASTS, MSFT, NFLX, PLTR. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: BABA +17%, META +15%, AVGO +11%, CRWV +9% to the upside; ASTS -14%, AIXA.DE -11%, RDW -10%, INTC -9% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: QQQ, AMZN, SPY, XOVR, LLY, UNH (+3 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: RBRK, FFIV, AAPL. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ASTS, COST, CRWV, GLD, INTU, MSFT, NFLX, ORCL, PLTR, RDW, SLV, WMT, XOM, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Last close: 725.51

Setup: Invesco QQQ reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 720.06 as first support. Daily RSI 52.8 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; momentum is firming, accumulate into support rather than strength. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 650.94 (10.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Market view: the Nasdaq-100, the gauge for AI and growth leadership; moving with the broad market this week.

Trade Plan Update: Week 2 of July 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 16:37:03 GMT

This week’s edge: last week’s AI and semiconductor leadership broke down hard, with Nvidia falling into Breakdown, Broadcom and Alphabet losing their trend, and the AI-compute names down double digits, while money rotated into healthcare, defensives, and select value as Treasury yields fell. Respect the regime change: trim or avoid the broken growth leaders, do not chase the falling AI-compute names, and lean into the healthcare and defensive names that are actually holding and reclaiming their trends.

Market Conditions

This week the tape did a sharp about-face. The recovery that had broadened into AI and semiconductor leadership a week ago reversed, and the reversal hit the leaders hardest: the Nasdaq-100 fell 4.6% on the week to 706.52 and lost its Trend-Hold, while the S&P 500 gave back 2.4% to 728.99 and also slipped into Transitional, even as the Dow edged higher and small caps actually rose, the Russell up about 1.4%, the mirror image of last week’s growth-over-value rotation and a tell that this was a megacap-growth unwind, not broad liquidation.

The damage was concentrated in the names that led the prior bounce: Nvidia fell 9% into Breakdown, Broadcom dropped 11% into Repair, and Alphabet lost 9% and its trend, while the AI-compute complex was crushed, CoreWeave down 18% and Nebius down 16%, Oracle down 19% into Breakdown on a weak reaction, and Palantir down 12%. Even the foundry and equipment names that kept their structure took losses, Taiwan Semi down 6% and ASML down 7%, holding Trend-Hold only by the grace of how far they had run.

The other side of the ledger was a clean defensive and healthcare rotation: Eli Lilly rose 10% and held its Trend-Hold, UnitedHealth added 7%, Novo Nordisk jumped 11% out of Breakdown, and the defensive-retail and defense names firmed, Target up 7%, Dollar General up 5%, RTX reclaiming Trend-Hold, with Palo Alto Networks up 6% one of the few software names gaining ground.

The macro backdrop confirmed the risk-off tone: Treasury yields fell, the 2-year easing to 4.07% from about 4.19% and the 10-year to 4.38% from 4.46% as money sought safety, while volatility ticked up and the VIX-tracking products rose on the week. Credit stayed orderly, high-yield spreads roughly steady, so this reads as a growth scare and a leadership rotation rather than a systemic stress event.

The regime count tells the story plainly: Trend-Hold names fell from 25 to 17 while Breakdowns rose to 26, leadership has thinned, and until the broken growth leaders reclaim their trends the burden of proof sits on them, not on the tape.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: FFIV, RTX. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: NVO, PINS, SHOP. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: LULU. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AIXA.DE, IFX.DE, NBIS, QQQ, SPY, XOVR. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AVGO, COPX, GOOG. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AMZN, ASTS, CRWV, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, RDW. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: NVO +11%, LLY +10%, TGT +7%, SHOP +7% to the upside; RDW -24%, ORCL -19%, CRWV -18%, NBIS -16% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: TSM, ASML, ITA, FFIV, SMSN.L, RBRK (+1 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: UNH, AMAT, INTC, LRCX, TGT. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ADBE, AMZN, ASTS, BABA, BIDU, COST, CRWV, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LMT, META, MSFT, NFLX, NKE, NOC, NVDA, ORCL, PALL, PLTR, RDW, SLV, WMT, XOM, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), Last close: 432.35

Setup: The foundry that anchors the entire AI supply chain, Taiwan Semi held its Trend-Hold through a 6% pullback while the AI-accelerator names broke, the most resilient structure in the chip complex. Full Trend-Hold on both the daily and weekly, the cleanest structure in the framework, with first support at the 1D EMA20 (432.04). Daily RSI 51.7 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish accelerating; the trend is intact but uncommitted, favor a defined pullback. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 345.64 (20.1% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Trade Plan Update: Week 4 of June 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 17:04:35 GMT

This week’s edge: the AI and semiconductor leadership did not just hold last week’s bounce, it broadened and accelerated, pulling Alphabet, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the AI-compute names into Trend-Hold, while last week’s defensive and value bounce reversed and energy, defense, and staples rolled back over. Lean into the broadening AI and growth leadership on pullbacks, and stay clear of the failed defensive trade and the still-broken software complex.

Market Conditions

The market spent a holiday-shortened week, with the cash session closed Friday for Juneteenth, consolidating last week’s recovery and then pushing it further, and the move had a clear character: the AI and semiconductor complex did not just hold its bounce, it broadened and accelerated.

QQQ rose 2.7% on the week to 740.62 and reclaimed a clean Trend-Hold, while SPY added 0.7% to 746.74 and small caps outperformed with the Russell up about 2%, even as the Dow finished roughly flat, a textbook tell that money was rotating toward growth and away from old-economy value. The Federal Reserve met Wednesday and held rates steady, and the front end firmed in response, the 2-year backing up to 4.19% from about 4.09% while the 10-year held near 4.46% and the 30-year sat at 4.90%, a modest curve-flattening the equity tape took in stride.

Volatility kept draining, with VIX-tracking products sliding through the week, and credit stayed calm, high-yield spreads steady, confirming a risk-on backdrop rather than a stress event. The leadership story was the AI-infrastructure surge: Nebius jumped 23% and CoreWeave 17% as the AI-compute names went vertical, Taiwan Semi rose 9%, Applied Materials 9%, Broadcom 8%, Intel 8%, and Lam Research 6%, dragging Alphabet, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Rubrik back into Trend-Hold and broadening the advance beyond the chips into megacap growth.

The flip side was the failure of last week’s defensive trade: the value, energy, and defense names that bounced a week ago rolled back over, with TechnipFMC down 8% and Exxon down 6% as energy broke down, Lockheed sliding 5% into Breakdown with Northrop falling 5% alongside it, and Walmart and Costco losing their repair and breaking down again.

Mega-cap software stayed broken, with Microsoft, Adobe, and Intuit all still in Breakdown and Apple still below its trend. With the Fed now behind us and no comparable catalyst on the near-term calendar, the tape is being driven by the AI-leadership rotation, and the path of least resistance stays higher so long as that leadership holds its trend.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AVGO, CRWV, GOOG, NVDA, RBRK. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AMZN, SOFI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: COPX, FFIV. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
·Lost the trend, into Repair: FTI. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: COST, LMT, NVO, WMT, XOM. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: NBIS +23%, CRWV +17%, TSM +9%, AMAT +9% to the upside; FTI -8%, XOM -6%, LULU -6%, LMT -5% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: LLY, GOOG, NVDA, RBRK, SPY, UNH (+5 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: OSCR, ASML, INTC, LRCX, NBIS, SMSN.L. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: AMAT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ADBE, BABA, BIDU, COST, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LMT, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOC, NVO, PALL, PINS, PLTR, SHOP, SLV, WMT, XOM, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

Trade Plan Update: Week 3 of June 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 16:39:24 GMT

This week’s edge: the jobs-report scare unwound, yields eased, and the broad indexes reclaimed their trend, but leadership rotated hard out of mega-cap software and into semiconductors, cyclicals, and value. Favor the names that reclaimed Trend-Hold, stand clear of the broken software complex, and keep risk measured into Wednesday’s Fed decision.

The jobs-report scare that broke the tape a week ago was largely unwound this week, and the broad indexes climbed back above their trend.

Yields eased as the rate panic faded, with the 2-year slipping to 4.09% from 4.17% and the 10-year easing to 4.48% from 4.55%, and volatility cooled, the VIX falling from its spike near 21 back toward 17 by Friday after a brief midweek pop.

SPY gained 0.6% on the week to 741.75 and QQQ rose 2.3% to 721.32, both reclaiming their Trend-Hold and both closing Friday green. Credit never flinched, with high-yield spreads steady all week, confirming this was a rate scare rather than a stress event.

The standout was the rotation beneath the surface. The semiconductors that were crushed in the Friday selloff staged a violent V-shaped recovery off the washout low: Intel rallied 26%, Applied Materials 25%, Lam Research 21%, ASML 14%, and AMD 10%, dragging the chip complex and the Nasdaq back into Trend-Hold alongside Taiwan Semi.

Money also rotated into cyclicals and defensive value, with copper miners reclaiming Trend-Hold, Target up 10% and Dollar General up 11% leading retail, Oscar Health up 15%, and Costco, Lockheed, Nike, and Walmart all repairing off their lows.

The clear loser was mega-cap software: Oracle fell 14% and Adobe 19% on disappointing earnings, Microsoft bled steadily into a Breakdown, Apple lost its Trend-Hold, and Intuit stayed broken. The week ahead is dominated by the Federal Reserve, whose rate decision and updated projections land Wednesday, June 17, the single event most likely to set direction for the rate-sensitive groups that just recovered.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, COPX, FTI, INTC, LRCX, QQQ, SPY, TGT, TSM, XOVR. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: DG, NVO, RTX. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: COST, LMT, NKE, WMT. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AAPL, ORCL, RBRK, RDW. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AMZN, ASTS. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: ADBE, MSFT, PINS, SLV. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: INTC +26%, AMAT +25%, LRCX +21%, OSCR +15% to the upside; ADBE -19%, RDW -18%, ORCL -14%, ASTS -12% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: SPY, QQQ, XOVR, FTI, TSM, COPX (+2 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: OSCR, UNH, LLY, ASML, LRCX. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: AMAT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ADBE, BABA, BIDU, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOC, PALL, PINS, PLTR, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 5 Actionable Setups

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Last close: 741.75

Setup: The least flashy setup in the book and the cleanest read on broad-market repair, the S&P 500 reclaimed its Trend-Hold as the jobs-report selloff unwound. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 740.81 as first support. Daily RSI 53.0 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 694.65 (6.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Entries: Pullback: 722.48 to 741.01 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting on it) · Breakout: above 760.40 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 760.40 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 796.06 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 828.93 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 722.59 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 2.6% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 694.65 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (740.81); take partials at T1 (760.40).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (740.81) or above 760.40.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Last close: 721.32

Trade Plan Update: Week 2 of June 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 14:49:05 GMT

This week’s edge: a hot jobs report broke the rally on Friday and the broad indexes lost their trend, so the regime has flipped defensive. Respect the breakdowns, lean on the quality and defensive names that held, and demand a reclaim before re-engaging the growth complex.

The tape broke hard on Friday and erased the prior week’s gains in a single session. A hot June jobs report sent yields jumping, the 2-year up 19 basis points to 4.17% and the 10-year to 4.55% from 4.45% a week ago, and the rate-sensitive end of the market repriced violently.

QQQ fell 4.8% on Friday to close the week down 4.5% at 705.06, while SPY lost 2.6% on the day and 2.5% on the week to 737.55, and both indexes lost their Trend-Hold.

The damage was concentrated where duration and beta run highest. Long-duration tech and AI names led the decline: Palantir (down 13%) and Baidu (down 10%) fell all the way from Trend-Hold to Breakdown, and the semis cohort cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional (AMD down 10%, Broadcom and Intel down 14%).

The high-beta and crypto complex was routed, with Redwire down 25%, the Ethereum ETF down 22%, AST SpaceMobile down 18%, the XRP ETF down 17%, and SoFi and Shopify down double digits and back into Breakdown.

Precious and industrial metals cracked as real yields rose, with gold breaking down and silver and copper miners rolling into Repair.

The tell was where money went, not just where it left: the defensive and value pockets caught a clear bid, with Oscar Health up 10%, UnitedHealth up 5%, Exxon up 3%, Walmart up 3%, and Berkshire reclaiming full Trend-Hold. This was a rates-and-valuation repricing, not a credit event: high-yield credit barely moved on the week and VIXY rose only to 24.3, elevated but far from a panic spike.

The posture for the week ahead is defensive: the broad indexes have lost their trend, breadth has rolled over, and the right stance is to respect the breakdowns, lean on the quality and defensive names that held, and demand a reclaim before re-engaging the growth complex.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: BRK.B. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMD, AMZN, ASTS, AVGO, CRWV, INTC, LRCX, MSFT, QQQ, SPY, TGT, TSM, XOVR. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: ADBE, COPX, SLV. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, DG, GLD, LULU, META, NKE, NVO, PLTR, SHOP, SOFI. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: OSCR +10%, PINS +7%, UNH +5%, XOM +3% to the upside; RDW -25%, ETHA -22%, ASTS -17%, XRPI -17% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: AMAT, SMSN.L, ITA, AIXA.DE, AAPL, BRK.B (+2 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the quality and defensive names that held their trend, the only longs worth engaging in a defensive tape.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: IFX.DE, PANW, RBRK, NBIS, LLY. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BABA, BIDU, COST, DG, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LMT, LULU, META, NFLX, NKE, NOC, NVO, PALL, PLTR, SHOP, SOFI, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 10 Actionable Setups

These are the highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry. Full detail, levels, and both stops for each.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Last close: 453.01

Setup: Semi capital-equipment bellwether that held its Trend-Hold while most of the semis cooled. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 448.98 as first support. Daily RSI 53.9 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; momentum is firming, accumulate into support rather than strength. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 348.73 (23.0% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.

Entries: Pullback:

Trade Plan Update : Week 1 of June 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 31 May 2026 13:38:01 GMT

This week’s edge: the rally broadened out of megacap semis into the beaten-down AI software and high-beta names, and several reclaimed their trends. Let the reclaim do the confirming, and buy pullbacks into the 1D EMA20 rather than chasing an overbought tape.

The risk-on tape not only held this week, it broadened. SPY added 1.9% to close at 756.48 and QQQ led with a 3.3% gain to 738.31, both printing fresh highs as the bond market kept easing.

The 10-year slipped to 4.45% and the 30-year to 4.99%, both lower than a week ago, with the 2-year down at 3.98%, while VIXY cooled another 7.9% to 23.3, a clean read that the rate scare is well behind us and buyers are reaching further out the risk curve.\

The big story was rotation into the names that had been left for dead: Palantir ripped 14% and reclaimed full Trend-Hold leadership, Oracle broke out 18% on AI compute deals, Rubrik gained 18%, and the high-beta cohort (SOFI up 17%, Shopify up 15%, Redwire up 40%) surged off its lows. Semiconductors were more mixed than last week: AMD, Infineon, and Samsung all gained double digits, but Nvidia actually slipped and cooled out of Trend-Hold even as its peers led.

The laggards were the defensives and energy, where Costco broke down 7%, Exxon lost its trend and rolled into Repair, and Walmart stayed broken.

The posture for the week is constructive but increasingly stretched, with SPY and QQQ both overbought into a jobs report on Friday: favor the confirmed reclaims and Trend-Hold pullbacks, respect the names that broke down, and let confirmation, not anticipation, pull the trigger.

What Changed From Last Week

Reclaimed Trend-Hold: BIDU, CRWV, MSFT, PLTR. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: ADBE, META, PINS, SHOP, SOFI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: DG, LULU, RTX. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: GOOG, NVDA. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: XOM. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BRK.B, COST, LMT, XRH0.L. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: RDW +40%, RBRK +18%, ORCL +18%, SOFI +17% to the upside; COST -7%, XOM -6%, XRH0.L -5%, BABA -4% to the downside.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This Week’s Playbook

Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.

Best risk/reward this week: CRWV, UNH, TGT, BIDU, AMZN. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: FFIV, AIXA.DE, NBIS, LLY, SMSN.L, ASTS (+3 more in the table). Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: XOVR, RDW, PANW, IFX.DE, AAPL, QQQ (+4 more in the table). Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BABA, BRK.B, COST, ETHA, INTU, LMT, NFLX, NOC, PALL, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

Top 10 Actionable Setups

These are the highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry. Full detail, levels, and both stops for each.

CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV), Last close: 109.53

Trade Plan: Week 5 May 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 24 May 2026 16:43:41 GMT

Risk appetite came straight back this week, the mirror image of last week’s yield-driven pullback. SPY added 0.9% to close at 745.64 and QQQ gained 1.2% to 717.54, both pressing back toward their highs as the bond market calmed. The 10-year eased to 4.56% and the 30-year to 5.07%, both lower than a week ago, while VIXY cooled from 26.9 to 25.4, a clean signal that the rate scare faded and buyers stepped back in. Money rotated right back into the AI complex: semiconductors led with AMD, Intel, and Infineon all up double digits, ASML and the equipment names close behind, application and security software (FFIV, PANW) broke out, and the speculative space names (ASTS, RDW) ripped more than 24%. The damage was narrow and earnings-driven, with Walmart and Intuit both gapping lower and snapping their trends in a single session. The posture for the week is constructive but selective: ride the Trend-Hold leaders on pullbacks, respect the handful of earnings breakdowns, and let confirmation, not anticipation, pull the trigger.

How Our Trade Plans Work

Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using 1D EMA stack alignment, cross-checked against the 1W chart for context. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer (size down on contact), T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Position sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size, but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait for resolution; Repair names take a starter position only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms. Cash is a position. Waiting is part of the plan. This update covers 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

What Has Been Working So Far

The framework’s discipline kept paying. Intuit was tracked as a Breakdown last week with a clear stay-out stance, and it fell another 18% on earnings, a textbook reminder that oversold inside damage is not a buy signal. Staying out of LULU, SHOP, and PLTR again avoided fresh lower lows, even as NKE and the defense complex (ITA, LMT) began to repair off support. The semiconductor Trend-Hold cohort did the heavy lifting: AMD, INTC, ASML, Infineon, and LRCX all extended, and FFIV and PANW confirmed clean breakouts rather than anticipation entries. The hardest lesson came from Walmart, which held Trend-Hold into earnings and then gapped below its structure; the rules-based invalidation level is exactly what protects capital when a defensive anchor breaks. Gold and silver stayed in digestion and still demand a confirmed reclaim, not a guess at the low. Cash kept its value as a position everywhere structure had not yet confirmed.

Top Focus List

Sixty names is a lot to act on, so start here. The detailed setups for every name follow below.

Highest-quality Trend-Hold setups: NBIS, RBRK, LLY, XOVR. Clean trends with room to run, buy pullbacks to support.
Best pullback candidates (sitting on the 1D EMA20): COPX, AVGO, NVDA, XOM, GOOG, TGT. Price is already at a defined entry, so the risk is tight and the trigger is near.
Most stretched, do not chase: PANW, FFIV, AAPL, RDW, IFX.DE. RSI is overbought; wait for a pullback rather than paying up.
Avoid / Breakdown watchlist: ADBE, BABA, DG, ETHA, INTU, LULU, META, NFLX, NOC, PALL, PINS, PLTR, RTX, SHOP, SOFI, WMT, XRPI. No long exposure until a reclaim confirms; not every dip is a setup.
Detailed Trade Setups
This article is a structured view of the market, not a set of predictions.
Every level, scenario, and setup is conditional on price behavior and market confirmation. Markets are dynamic, and outcomes depend on how price interacts with key levels, not on any single narrative. Use this as a framework for thinking, risk management, and preparation, not as a directive for action.

Apple Inc. (AAPL), Last close: 308.82

Setup: Mega-cap quality anchor extending into the tape’s strongest pocket. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 291.33 as first support. Daily RSI 79.1 (overbought), MACD bullish expanding; the move is extended, so let it cool into support before adding. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 265.30 (14.1% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 291.33 to 298.62 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 311.40 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 329.32 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T2: 350.08 (1W Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 377.29 (1D Fib ext 200)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 291.33 (1D EMA20), about 5.7% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 265.30 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (291.33); take partials at T1 (329.32).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (291.33) or above 311.40. RSI 79 stretched, do not chase current price.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Last close: 244.76

Setup: Creative software franchise that lost its base and rolled from Repair into 1D Breakdown. 1D Breakdown (price below all four 1D EMAs, nearest is EMA20 at 247.22) inside a Breakdown 1W. Daily RSI 48.1 (neutral-soft), MACD bearish accelerating; no directional conviction, demand confirmation first. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 224.13 (8.4% below current), shifting regime to continued damage.
Entries: Framework view: avoid. Nearest support: 240.23 (1D Fib 78.6) · Reclaim trigger: above 247.22 (1D EMA20)
Targets: T1: 247.22 (1D EMA20) · T2: 252.88 (1D Fib 61.8) · T3: 257.41 (1D EMA100)
Trade risk: No long exposure under the framework; the reclaim trigger above is the only level that re-engages risk.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 224.13 (1D 60-bar swing low); break shifts to continued damage.
Holding: If held from before, exit on failed reclaim of T1 (247.22); framework view is no new exposure.
Not holding: Framework view: stay out. If initiating anyway, minimum is above 247.22 with above-average volume; size small.

Aixtron SE (AIXA.DE), Last close: 53.68

Setup: European compound-semi equipment niche trending with the AI build-out. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 49.08 as first support. Daily RSI 63.3 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 27.52 (48.7% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 49.08 to 50.31 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 55.28 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 55.28 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 64.41 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 67.14 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 49.08 (1D EMA20), about 8.6% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 27.52 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (49.08); take partials at T1 (55.28).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (49.08) or above 55.28.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Last close: 432.16

Setup: Semi capital-equipment bellwether leading the cap-ex cycle. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 417.55 as first support. Daily RSI 58.1 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 337.52 (21.9% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 417.55 to 422.91 (1D EMA20 to 1D Tenkan) · Breakout: above 448.45 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 448.45 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 483.20 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 527.41 (1D Fib ext 161.8)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 417.55 (1D EMA20), about 3.4% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 337.52 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (417.55); take partials at T1 (448.45).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (417.55) or above 448.45.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Last close: 467.51

Setup: AI accelerator challenger in parabolic extension on share-gain narrative. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 404.09 as first support. Daily RSI 72.9 (firm), MACD bearish stabilizing; healthy momentum, add on weakness back to support. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 250.98 (46.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 404.09 to 414.20 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 481.41 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 481.41 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 560.06 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 591.55 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 404.09 (1D EMA20), about 13.6% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 250.98 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (404.09); take partials at T1 (481.41).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (404.09) or above 481.41.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Last close: 266.32

Setup: E-commerce and AWS leader holding with the Trend-Hold cohort. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 262.99 as first support. Daily RSI 58.4 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; constructive but unhurried, let price come to the levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 230.76 (13.4% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 259.40 to 266.05 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting on it) · Breakout: above 278.56 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 278.56 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 300.16 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 310.43 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 255.19 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 4.2% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 230.76 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (262.99); take partials at T1 (278.56).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (262.99) or above 278.56.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Last close: 1,633

Setup: EUV lithography monopoly, the gating name for advanced nodes. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 1,515 as first support. Daily RSI 62.4 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish expanding; constructive but unhurried, let price come to the levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 1,324 (18.9% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 1,515 to 1,547 (1D EMA20 to 1D Tenkan) · Breakout: above 1,654 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 1,764 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T2: 1,904 (1D Fib ext 161.8) · T3: 1,946 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 1,515 (1D EMA20), about 7.2% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 1,324 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (1,515); take partials at T1 (1,764).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (1,515) or above 1,654.

AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS), Last close: 105.86

Setup: Speculative satellite-broadband name in 1D Trend-Hold but at extension. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 84.10 as first support. Daily RSI 67.9 (firm), MACD bullish expanding; healthy momentum, add on weakness back to support. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 74.79 (29.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 84.10 to 86.20 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 107.59 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 107.59 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 119.60 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 129.89 (1W 60-bar high)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 85.51 (1D Kijun), about 19.2% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 74.79 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (84.10); take partials at T1 (107.59).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (84.10) or above 107.59.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Last close: 414.14

Setup: Custom AI silicon and networking pillar, structurally extended with momentum cooling. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 413.71 as first support. Daily RSI 53.3 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish accelerating; constructive but unhurried, let price come to the levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 352.74 (14.8% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 403.38 to 413.73 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting on it) · Breakout: above 442.36 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 423.58 (1D Tenkan) · T2: 442.36 (1D 20-bar high) · T3: 483.81 (1D Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 394.65 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 4.7% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 352.74 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (413.71); take partials at T1 (423.58).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (413.71) or above 442.36.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Last close: 130.00

Setup: China e-commerce and AI infra giant in 1D Breakdown despite the China-tech re-rating. 1D Breakdown (price below all four 1D EMAs, nearest is EMA20 at 134.69) inside a Transitional 1W. Daily RSI 44.1 (neutral-soft), MACD bearish accelerating; no directional conviction, demand confirmation first. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 117.93 (9.3% below current), shifting regime to continued damage.

Trade Plan: Week 4 May 2026

Investing With Purpose | IWP — Sun, 17 May 2026 17:00:34 GMT

Last week, the market setup pulled back from highs, with SPY off 1.2% and IWM off 2.4%, as yields broke higher and risk-on positioning got trimmed. The 10-year jumped to 4.59% and the 30-year to 5.12%, TLT lost 1.5%, HYG softened, and VIXY firmed to 26.9, a clean signal that the bond market repriced and equities are absorbing the second-order impact. With FOMC minutes and housing data ahead, the posture is straightforward: respect pullback levels, trail risk on Trend-Hold names, demand confirmation before engaging anything Transitional or Repair.

How Our Trade Plans Work

This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.

What Has Been Working So Far

The framework’s discipline continues to deliver. Staying out of LULU, NKE, and DG kept capital away from continued breakdowns where each lower-low confirmed the next. The Trend-Hold cohort of AAPL, AMAT, AVGO, COST, NBIS, ORCL, and PANW compounded into the week even as broader indices pulled back Friday. XOM was correctly tracked as a Repair case last week with the reclaim of 151 as the trigger; the move to 158 confirmed the rules-driven reclaim entry rather than the anticipation entry. Defense primes (LMT, NOC, RTX) and consumer broken names continued to drift lower, reinforcing the framework stance that oversold inside damage is not a buy signal. Semiconductors (AMAT, AMD, LRCX) absorbed Friday’s pullback without breaking structure, and defensives (GLD, SLV) still need confirmed reclaims, not anticipation buys.

Detailed Trade Setups

This article is a structured view of the market, not a set of predictions.
Every level, scenario, and setup is conditional on price behavior and market confirmation. Markets are dynamic, and outcomes depend on how price interacts with key levels, not on any single narrative. Use this as a framework for thinking, risk management, and preparation, not as a directive for action.

Full trade plan summary table at the end.

Apple Inc. (AAPL), Last close: 300.23

Setup: Mega-cap quality anchor extending into the tape’s strongest pocket. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 283.67 as first support. Daily RSI 76.6 (overbought), MACD bullish fading; momentum strong but stretched, prefer pullback over chase. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 263.39 (12.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 283.67 to 289.85 (1D EMA20 to 1D Tenkan) · Breakout: above 303.20 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 318.89 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T2: 338.85 (1D Fib ext 161.8) · T3: 360.89 (1D Fib ext 200)
Stop: Daily close below 263.39 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (283.67); take partials at T1 (318.89).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (283.67) or above 303.20. RSI 77 stretched, do not chase current price.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Last close: 247.60

Setup: Creative software franchise navigating the AI transition, base-building inside long-term damage. 1D Repair (price holding above the 1D EMA20 at 245.47, below the shorter EMAs) inside a Breakdown 1W; an early-stabilization read. Daily RSI 51.6 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; tape is digesting, adds at defined levels only. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 231.74 (6.4% below current), shifting regime to Breakdown.
Entries: Framework view: wait. Pullback zone: 231.74 to 245.59 (1D 20-bar swing low to 1D Tenkan) · Reclaim trigger: above 247.81 (1D EMA50)
Targets: T1: 254.72 (1D Fib 61.8) · T2: 259.44 (1D 20-bar high) · T3: 264.18 (1D Fib 50)
Stop: Daily close below 231.74 (1D 20-bar swing low); break shifts to Breakdown.
Holding: If held from before, reduce on any failed reclaim of T1 (254.72); otherwise trail to 1D Tenkan (245.59).
Not holding: Framework view: wait. If initiating anyway, minimum is above 247.81 with volume; size small.

Aixtron SE (AIXA.DE), Last close: 51.98

Setup: European compound-semi equipment niche trending with the AI build-out. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 47.21 as first support. Daily RSI 62.2 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; tape is digesting, adds at defined levels only. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 26.27 (49.5% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 47.21 to 48.39 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 55.28 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 55.28 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 64.41 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 67.14 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Stop: Daily close below 26.27 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (47.21); take partials at T1 (55.28).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (47.21) or above 55.28.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Last close: 436.62

Setup: Semi capital-equipment bellwether leading the cap-ex cycle. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 414.32 as first support. Daily RSI 62.1 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; tape is digesting, adds at defined levels only. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 333.22 (23.7% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 414.32 to 424.35 (1D EMA20 to 1D Tenkan) · Breakout: above 448.45 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 448.45 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 483.20 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 527.41 (1D Fib ext 161.8)
Stop: Daily close below 333.22 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (414.32); take partials at T1 (448.45).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (414.32) or above 448.45.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Last close: 424.10

Setup: AI accelerator challenger in parabolic extension on share-gain narrative. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 379.14 as first support. Daily RSI 67.6 (firm), MACD bullish fading; healthy momentum, add on weakness to support. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 241.28 (43.1% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 379.14 to 388.61 (1D EMA20 to 1D EMA20 + 2.5%) · Breakout: above 469.22 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 469.22 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 544.55 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 576.05 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Stop: Daily close below 241.28 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (379.14); take partials at T1 (469.22).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (379.14) or above 469.22.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Last close: 264.14

Setup: E-commerce and AWS leader holding with the Trend-Hold cohort. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 261.65 as first support. Daily RSI 59.2 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish accelerating; tape is digesting, adds at defined levels only. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 229.01 (13.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 261.65 to 263.88 (1D EMA20 to current price (pullback capped at current)) · Breakout: above 278.56 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 269.73 (1D Tenkan) · T2: 300.16 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 310.43 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Stop: Daily close below 229.01 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (261.65); take partials at T1 (269.73).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (261.65) or above 278.56.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Last close: 1,502

Setup: EUV lithography monopoly, the gating name for advanced nodes. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 1,492 as first support. Daily RSI 52.5 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; tape is digesting, adds at defined levels only. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 1,312 (12.6% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.