Well crafted thesis. While the long-thesis remains intact, there is currently an abundance of copper - exchange inventories across Shanghai, LME, and COMEX have been steadily rising. US inventories are at 30 year record levels. The narrative appears to be moving ahead of the current structural fundamentals.
A significant portion of recent stockpiling has been in anticipation of tariffs. If tariff expectations subside it may release some tension in the market. The recent announcement by the Trump admin. of reductions in Aluminum and Steel tariffs do soften expectations.
Well crafted thesis. While the long-thesis remains intact, there is currently an abundance of copper - exchange inventories across Shanghai, LME, and COMEX have been steadily rising. US inventories are at 30 year record levels. The narrative appears to be moving ahead of the current structural fundamentals.
Fair point on inventories. That’s the tactical pressure.
The structural question is whether those inventories represent true surplus or temporary stockpiling ahead of expected demand.
Price structure is compressing, not breaking. That’s what we’re watching.
A significant portion of recent stockpiling has been in anticipation of tariffs. If tariff expectations subside it may release some tension in the market. The recent announcement by the Trump admin. of reductions in Aluminum and Steel tariffs do soften expectations.