Exelixis (EXEL): Quiet Coil, Powerful Setup Ahead of Earnings
A cash-rich oncology leader tightening its focus ahead of pivotal Phase 3 data and a key November earnings update.
When we last covered Exelixis on August 25, our thesis hinged on a robust Cabometyx cash engine backing a rich pipeline, especially the hope that zanzalintinib (XL092) could shoulder growth as cabozantinib matures. Since then, the story has matured: the topline STELLAR-303 result in metastatic CRC has landed, and early‐stage assets have advanced. Financial metrics remain comparatively stable, so the next leg of the story is driven by clinical catalysts + technical breakout potential.
With EXEL 0.00%↑’s next earnings on November 4, 2025, the next few weeks represent a window where technicals might lead the dance ahead of fundamentals. This update will (1) walk through pipeline/backlog, (2) restate the fundamentals anchor, (3) run updated technicals, and (4) propose a refined trade plan into earnings and beyond.
Let’s start with what moved (and didn’t move) since August.
Key Takeaways
EXEL hasn’t reported since August, so fundamentals remain steady. The real shift is pipeline advancement, especially positive STELLAR-303 OS in colorectal cancer.
Zanzalintinib is now the centerpiece; delays to STELLAR-304 and the H&N discontinuation weigh, but subsequent RCC and NET readouts still loom large.
Technicals show compression; breakout above $41 with volume is the trigger. Support zone lies $38.3–38.8.
Trade plan: partial entries early, full on breakout, with targets up to $50+ if momentum sustains; stop below $38.
The upcoming Nov 4 earnings could act as a catalyst, but ideally you want to establish a position ahead and let technicals lead.
1.Pipeline & Backlog Update
Below is a refreshed view of Exelixis’s pipeline, what’s advanced, what’s delayed or canceled, and what’s coming next.
1.1 Core assets & late-stage
Cabozantinib (Cabometyx) / COSMIC-313
Still Exelixis’s cash cow. The franchise continues to generate revenue with steady demand.
COSMIC-313 (cabozantinib + nivolumab + ipilimumab vs placebo + NIVO + IPI in RCC) remains part of their pivotal pipeline portfolio. Exelixis
As cabozantinib nears patent cliffs (2030+), the burden to transition to new
molecules increases. S&P Global
Zanzalintinib (XL092) – the successor bet
This is now the central pivot for long-term optionality. Below is what’s new:
Other pipeline moves:
XL309, XB010, XB628, XB371: early-stage programs progressed, with INDs and Phase 1 activations. Business Wire ir.exelixis.com
XL495: discontinued. Exelixis decided to halt development in 2025 based on early clinical results. ir.exelixis.com Oncology Pipeline
ADU-1805, XB064, XB033, XB773, etc.: remain in discovery or preclinical stages per Exelixis’ pipeline website. ir.exelixis.com
Takeaway on pipeline/backlog
Zanzalintinib has become the gravitational center of the story. STELLAR-303 is a proof point, but execution in RCC and NET readouts will matter. The delay of STELLAR-304 is nontrivial; losing the H2 2025 tempo is a drag. Discontinuation of H&N suggests Exelixis is resource pruning to focus where upside is highest. Meanwhile, early non-TKI bets (ADCs, bispecifics) provide upside optionality if any of them breakout from Phase 1 into Phase 2.
If we map catalysts:
Near-term (2025): full STELLAR-303 data (subgroup OS, PFS, safety) + detailed disclosure
Medium-term (2026): STELLAR-304 in RCC, STELLAR-311 in NET, more trial initiations (e.g. combos with Merck/Belzutifan) S&P Global
In short, the pipeline is leaner but more focused, and market attention will cluster tightly around zanzalintinib’s pivotal execution.
2. Fundamentals
Since the last earnings, there hasn’t been a full report, so fundamentals remain largely reaffirmed from prior filings. But a few updates and reminders:
In Q1 2025, Exelixis reported $555.4M in total revenues, with cabozantinib (Cabometyx) net product revenues of $513.3M. ir.exelixis.com
They raised 2025 full-year guidance by $100M, reflecting confidence in Cabometyx growth and early zanzalintinib momentum. ir.exelixis.com
In August 2025, in the Q2 release, Exelixis disclosed progress on early-stage assets and reaffirmed their pipeline focus (e.g. three active Phase 1 studies: XL309, XB010, XB628). ir.exelixis.com
Preclinical data presentations (XL309, XL495, XB628, XB371) at AACR 2025 were highlighted, though XL495 has since been discontinued. ir.exelixis.com
Valuation / risk context
The financial base (Cabometyx revenue + growing margins, plus a healthy cash buffer) gives some insulation while pipeline bets mature.
The core risk is clinical execution, one blown readout in RCC or failure to sustain OS benefit in CRC would materially reprice optionality.
Compared to peers in oncology (e.g. mid-cap biotech with one driver), EXEL is relatively less binary given diversified assets, but that also means modest upside unless a breakout zone is cleared.
3. Technical Analysis
3.1 Weekly (Macro context)
The weekly chart shows a range-bound consolidation for many months following the spike in late 2024 / early 2025.
Auto fib extension from a prior impulse (if drawn) shows targets near $50.25 (2.618) and $54.8+ (3.618) as potential long-term ambition zones.
Ichimoku on weekly suggests the price is hovering near or slightly below the cloud, not yet decisive for long-term breakout.
Interpretation: EXEL is currently in a base-building phase; the weekly structure is not broken yet, so the path of least resistance is sideways until a clean breakout. But the extension zones give potential targets if momentum kicks in.
3.2 Daily
On daily, your Fibonacci retracement from a recent swing suggests 0.618 retrace at $41.16, with resistance zones clustered from $41.0 to $41.9.
The support side lies nearer $38.3–$38.5 (0 level) and a deeper backstop near $35.9 in the extended retracement models.
Ichimoku daily shows price perhaps crossing or challenging the conversion lines / the cloud lower boundary; a fight zone.
Momentum (RSI) looks recovering from oversold dips; MACD is turning positive or neutral.
Interpretation: The daily is testing resistance around high 41s. The support base 38–38.5 is holding. A decisive push above daily cloud and fib zone could usher in a breakout leg.
3.3 4-hour / intraday
Shorter timeframe (4h) confirms a compression / wedge structure. The recent rebound from $38.5 shows buyers stepping in.
The fib retracement / extension drawn on 4h suggests next resistance at $40.9–41.15, then $42+.
The moving averages (EMA 20/50/100) are converging; a tight coil that often precedes a directional move.
Volume appears moderate on the recent bounce, not explosive (i.e. not fully convinced yet).
Interpretation: The 4h structure is coiled. On a breakout above 41.0–41.2, there’s room to run to the next fib / extension zone. Conversely, if fails, re-test toward 38.5 might occur.
3.4 Combined technical view & risk zones
Key levels to watch / trade zones:
Support zone: $38.3 – $38.8 (daily swing low zone)
Daily resistance / breakout zone: $41.0 – $41.9
Extension / target zone (once cleared): $45.7 (1.618) → $50.25 (2.618) → $54.8+ (3.618)
Deeper downside buffer: $35.9 (if breakdown)
If EXEL can decisively break and hold above $41, we could see a run toward the extension targets. If it fails, retesting support is plausible.
4. Trade Plan
Given the mixed but hopeful fundamentals and coiled technicals, here’s a refined trade approach heading into earnings and beyond.
4.1 Entry / Trigger
Trigger zone: Break & hold above $41.0 – $41.2 with confirming volume
Alternate entry (lower risk): Partial position from $38.8 – $39.5 zone, with tight stop below $38.0
For those who missed early entries, a pullback retest of breakout (at $41 support) is acceptable if technicals turn supportive.
4.2 Targets
Short-term target (pre-earnings / near-term): $44.0 – $45.7 (1.618 fib)
Mid-term: $50.25 (2.618)
Aggressive / stretch: $54.8+ (3.618)
You can ladder targets and take partial profit as price reaches each zone.
4.3 Risk / Stop Framework
Hard stop: below $38 (ideally $37.8), beyond that, most structure breaks
Trailing stop: once moving above $41, you can trail using 4h EMAs or the daily conversion line
Keep position size moderate: this is biotech, so clinical binary risk remains.
4.4 Scenario Plays
Pre-earnings swing play: Enter on breakout ($41), hold into earnings for a volatility squeeze. with 2–3 week horizon. If earnings are weak or guidance cautious, an exit at 50% of position or tight stop.
Post-earnings continuation play: If earnings surprises or pipeline comments are bullish, re-enter or add on dip near $40–41 if healthy structure holds.
Fail scenario: If price rejects $41 and falls, re-test $38.5; if that fails, avoid holding into earnings; risk of downside is elevated.
4.5 Position Sizing / Allocation
Given biotech volatility, we’d suggest using no more than 5–8% of portfolio per single biotech position, with a smaller “optionality” bucket for pipeline plays. If EXEL becomes a base core holding, scale slowly with technical confirmation.
Bottom Line
EXEL remains one of the few profitable oncology names with real cash flow, a credible successor molecule, and the balance sheet to fund its own future.
The market has mostly ignored it since summer, but under the surface, the setup has only improved:
STELLAR-303 validated zanzalintinib’s potential, CABOMETYX continues to print cash, and early-stage ADC and bispecific assets are slowly adding depth.
Technically, the stock is coiled just beneath multi-month resistance. The cloud is thinning, EMAs are converging, and momentum is rebuilding.
A confirmed breakout above $41–42 could mark the start of a new leg toward $45.5 → $50, while risk is clearly defined below $38.
No new earnings mean no new surprises, but that also means the next move belongs to the pipeline and the chart.
With the November 4 report ahead and multiple trial readouts in motion, $EXEL is entering a window where conviction and timing matter more than narrative.
The quiet compounding continues, until the breakout does too.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.