Genpact Limited ($G): Quality Cash Flows, Broken Chart, Buyable Location
Genpact isn’t the brand you see. It’s the one keeping Fortune 500 operations efficient, data flowing, and cash cycles moving.
Introduction
Genpact G 0.00%↑ is a high-quality digital operations / BPM name that the market is currently treating like a cyclical call center stock. That disconnect is the opportunity.
The stock has unwound from the mid-$50s to ~$38 on three things: slowing client discretionary spend, AI/automation risk, and a technical breakdown that pulled in quant/swing supply. Underneath that, the business is still doing ~$5B revenue, ~$735M operating income, and >$560M free cash flow with modest leverage and steady beats. Next earnings (early Nov) comes at a point where the chart is sitting right on multi-timeframe Fib support ($37.7–$36). That’s where we plan the long, not chase the downside.
This is a quality, cash-generative services name trading at a broken-chart multiple. If $37–$38 holds, the long is attractive. If $35.5 cracks, we wait lower.
Key Takeaways
G 0.00%↑ is doing ~$4.9B TTM revenue and ~$538M TTM net income with FCF of ~$562M; FCF conversion is strong and repeatable at ~11–12% of revenue.
At ~$38, the stock is on ~12–13x TTM EPS and ~10–11x 2026 EPS, a discount to higher-multiple BPM / digital ops peers despite better balance sheet efficiency.
Balance sheet is clean: net debt ~$0.6B vs EBITDA ~$0.88B → <1x net leverage, giving room for buybacks/dividend continuity even in slower growth.
Technically the stock is in the last leg of a multi-month ABC-wave decline; the drop zone is $37.7 (0.50) and $35.7 (0.618).
Near term, any reclaim of $39.5–$40 flips the daily from countertrend bounces only to tradable squeeze into $41–$42.
Company Overview
Genpact is a digital operations and business process solutions provider. In practice that means: long-duration, embedded processes for finance & accounting, risk, customer/consumer operations, and analytics/AI-led transformation for large enterprises. Revenue is diversified across verticals, contract sizes are material, and switching costs are non-trivial because G 0.00%↑ often runs the process, not just staffs it.
The core of the model: recurring/renewal-heavy services, relatively low capex (~$80–90M on $5B sales), and high cash conversion. That is why you see $649M operating cash flow and $561M FCF in the TTM despite only mid-single-digit top-line growth. This is a cash-compounder, not a hyper-growth SaaS.
The peer grid you shared confirms the positioning: $G at 12.4x P/E, EV ~$7.5B, debt/cap 18–19%, dividend 1.8%, sitting between cheaper competitor names (CNXC 0.00%↑ ~8–9x) and premium analytics names ( EXLS 0.00%↑ ~25x ). That’s exactly where it should sit when growth is 4–6%. A re-acceleration or a clean AI/digital narrative is what lifts it out of this band.
Mini conclusion: strategically, G 0.00%↑ is a sticky, cash-generating ops partner to large enterprises. Its main weakness isn’t model quality, it’s growth velocity. The market is pricing “slow forever.” That’s our leverage point.
Major News / Pipeline
Execution beats: the EPS beat track shows +$0.03 to +$0.05 a quarter on ~$1.2–1.25B revenue runs. That’s disciplined opex and utilization management, not revenue surprises.
Forward EPS path: FactSet-style grid shows 2025 EPS around $3.55 and 2026 around $3.88. That’s 9–10% EPS growth profile on a services name trading near 10–11x forward. That’s cheap.
Capital return: dividend of $0.68 (1.8%) is covered multiple times by FCF; with net debt under 1x EBITDA, buybacks stay an option.
Upcoming catalyst: Q3 FY25 on/around Nov 6 is perfectly timed with price sitting on the lower channel. A beat + reiterate scenario can trigger the $39.5–$41 squeeze.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue & earnings trend
TTM revenue: $4.93B vs $4.77B (2024), $4.48B (2023), $4.37B (2022), $4.02B (2021). That’s a ~5% CAGR, so we’re not buying a growth rocket.
TTM operating income: $734.9M; operating margin ~14.9%.
TTM net income to common: $538.3M; net margin ~10.9%.
EPS: ~$3.01–3.06 TTM, stepping to $3.55 (2025E) and $3.88 (2026E).
This is a profile that should trade 15–17x in a normal IT services tape. We’re not in a normal tape, so it’s 12–13x.
Margins & profitability
Gross profit TTM: $1.76B, OpEx TTM: $1.02B, so they’re holding the 14–15% operating band even as volumes slow.
EBITDA TTM: $880M; EV/EBITDA is ~8.5x, solidly below high-quality services peers that often sit 10–12x.
Balance sheet & leverage
Total assets: ~$5.0B; total equity: ~$2.39B.
Total debt: ~$1.45B, net debt: ~$0.6.
Net debt / EBITDA < 1x. That’s very comfortable.
Working capital above $1B = no liquidity stress.
Cash flow quality
Operating cash flow: $649M.
Capex: $88M.
Free cash flow: $562M.
FCF conversion vs net income: ~104%. Very good for a services company.
Financing cash flow is negative because they are repaying debt (-$437M TTM) and returning capital (-$253M buybacks/dividends). That shows capital discipline, not distress.
Valuation vs peers
At $38 and ~175–178M diluted shares, market cap is ≈ $6.7B.
EV: $7.5B.
P/E TTM ~12.4x.
2025 P/E ~10.7x (on $3.55).
2026 P/E ~9.8x (on $3.88).
That’s a discount to EXLS 0.00%↑ at 25.7x and to INOD 0.00%↑ at 55.7x. With this balance sheet and this FCF, fair multiple should range between 13.5–15.0x, which on $3.6–3.7 means $49–$55. The market is paying ~30% discount to that because the chart is broken.
Fundamentals conclusion: fundamentals support the long. Double-digit ROIC, high FCF conversion, sub-1x leverage, and a forward P/E below 11x. The only thing not supporting the long is the current downside momentum. So let the technicals tell you where to step in.
Technical Analysis
Weekly
Price broke below the weekly EMA 20/50/100/200 cluster (roughly $43 → $41). That’s an exhaustion + distribution look.
The Elliott waves shows a completed advance and an ongoing ABC correction with the current C leg dwindling. The projected downside 0.507 at $37.73 and 0.618 at $35.76.
Weekly RSI has bled into the mid-30s, i.e. weakness but not full capitulation.
Weekly MACD is negative and widening, which means any bounce off $38 first gets sold into the $41–$42 area unless momentum flips.
The location is good, the trigger is not yet there (no weekly reversal candle, no momentum cross).
Daily
Clear, orderly descending channel from the July high. Each rally stalls under the declining EMA ribbon (20d ≈ $39.6, 50d ≈ $41.1, 100d ≈ $42.5, 200d ≈ $43.2).
Current price: $38.1, that is essentially sitting on the lower channel + the 0.5 corrective target.
Daily Elliot waves shows a completed 5 period sub-wave within the C leg. That’s classic late-stage down move.
Daily momentum (MACD flat near zero, RSI 31–35 trying to curl) is consistent with a tradable bounce not yet a new uptrend.
Key daily levels:
Support: $37.7 → $36.0 (Fib 0.5 → 0.618, channel floor)
First resistance: $38.8–$39.1 (intraday EMAs + 30m Fib cluster)
Structural resistance: $39.5–$40.0 (20d EMA, former breakdown)
Trend-change zone: $41–$42 (50d + prior pivot)
Intraday (2h / 1h / 30m / 5m)
30m auto-Fib shows 0.382 at $37.65 and 0.618 at $37.20. These match the daily confluence. Good alignment.
30m & 1h EMAs are all above price and downward-sloping; price is trying to retake the shorter EMAs (20/50) around $38.2–$38.4.
Micro 5-wave up on the 1m/5m with a projected 1.0 extension to $38.13 (already tagged) and a 1.618 extension to $38.22. That’s the usual signature of a first countertrend leg. Expect ABC back into $38.05–$37.95 before the next try higher.
5m MACD and RSI both turned up from oversold, means buyers are testing, not in control.
Ichimoku (30m) still has price below cloud. Any long here is countertrend until we’re above the cloud and through $38.8–$39.
Technicals conclusion: the technical picture says late in the selloff, attractive support just below, bounce likely, trend-change only above $39.5. That lines up perfectly with a two-layer trade plan: scalp/swing the bounce, accumulate for re-rate on closes back over $40.
Trade Plan
A) Tactical / Short-to-Medium-Term Swing (2–6 weeks)
Entry zone:
Primary: $38.10 → $37.80 (current price + first intraday pullback)
Aggressive add: $37.50–$37.20
Stop-loss: < $36.90 (below daily channel and below the obvious 0.5/0.618 confluence; if G 0.00%↑ prints there, the market is going for $35s and we step aside).
Targets:
T1: $39.50 (reclaim daily 20d / intraday cloud top)
T2: $41.00 (daily 50d + July pivot shelf)
Position bias: Long, countertrend. Take profits into $39.5 if momentum stalls. Do not hold full size if it fails 3x at $39.5.
Why it works: we are buying exhaustion at support in a name with positive EPS surprise skew and an earnings catalyst in a week. You don’t need multiple expansion for $38 to $41. You just need no bad news.
B) Medium-term / 3–12 Month
Buy: $37.0–$39.0. This is the zone where the chart is ugly enough to give you the discount but the fundamentals still say $3.6–$3.9 EPS coming.
Hard stop: monthly close < $35.50. That breaks the 0.618 corrective target on the weekly and opens $33 → $31 (1.618 / 2.618 intraday extensions).
Targets:
Base case: $45
Bull case: $48–$50
Why it works: the business throws off >$550M FCF, leverage is low, and the market is paying <11x forward. You’re essentially getting a good BPO/digital ops compounder at a cyclical multiple because the chart is red.
If price breaks $35.5 with volume and retests from below, the market is not done repricing AI/capex deferrals in this space.
Mini conclusion: the obvious trade is the long. The only reason to pass is if we lose $36.9–$35.5, because that means the corrective structure wasn’t done.
Conclusion
G 0.00%↑ right now is a simple story: fundamentals look like a 14–15x services company, but the chart is being priced like a 10–11x slow grower. You have clean cash generation, sub-1x net leverage, and a steady beat cadence. You also have a multi-timeframe corrective pattern that is almost done and resting on two aligned Fibonacci levels. That’s the setup we like: quality + location + upcoming catalyst. The play is to start long in the $38 area with tight risk for a $39.5–$41 squeeze, and to keep a second, slower account buying the same zone for a 6–12 month move back to the mid-to-high $40s. Only a break of $35.5 invalidates the thesis.
The information in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the author’s personal research and analysis, which may be subject to error or omission. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
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