Gold Update: Breakout Failed, Trend Intact

Breakout faded on headlines, not fundamentals.

Gold ripped to fresh highs, then gave it back in one ugly session. The move wasn’t about a new “tax on buyers.” It started with headlines that the U.S. would hit imported bars with tariffs, then follow-up chatter that exemptions are coming. That sent futures from breakout to fade in a hurry. Under the hood the trend is still constructive. Price sits above the daily cloud and the key EMAs, but momentum needs a reset. Translation: buy dips into support, fade headline spikes into resistance.

Market backdrop that matters

• Tariff headlines, not a buyer tax

  • Reports flagged tariffs on imported 1-kg and 100-oz bars. Prices spiked, some refiners paused shipments, then the White House signaled clarification and potential exemptions. Price faded. This is logistics and policy risk, not a structural demand shift.

• Taxes that actually apply

  • Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as a collectible. Long-term gains face a max 28% federal rate. Short-term gains are ordinary income. State rules on sales tax vary. Florida just removed the old $500 minimum, making all bullion sales tax-free in the state.

• Macro drivers

  • Path of real yields and the U.S. dollar. Softer real yields and a weaker USD help gold; strength in either is a headwind.

  • Official-sector demand. Central banks keep buying on dips, creating a floor effect.

  • Geopolitics and election season. Risk events support hedging flows.

  • Positioning. Futures length elevated but not extreme; ETF flows mixed. Rallies still need new buyers.Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

• Breakout attempt failed. Daily candle closed weak on higher volume.