Gold (XAU) Update: Squeezing in the Low-3Ks Before the Next Big Break
How to Fade Gold’s Bounce at $3,330 into Targets at $3,320 and $3,315
Since our last Substack note, gold has stalled out in a tight $3,300–3,350 band. With yields ticking higher on renewed Fed “higher-for-longer” chatter and the U.S. dollar refusing to roll over (DXY bumping 102), gold’s correction is maturing, but still far from exhausted. Here’s a rundown of the latest chart beats, key levels, and the macro catalysts you need to watch for your next entry.
Chart Pulse
ADX/ATR: Low ADX (<20) and shrinking ATR point to a squeeze.
Bollinger Bands: Narrow on all timeframes, watch for a daily close outside $3,276–3,360.
Ichimoku: Daily price stuck in the cloud; 30m cloud base at ~$3,300.
StochRSI: Fading in neutral, needs a push above 80 for bullish resolve.
Macro Check
Fed Talk: “No cuts yet” keeps U.S. 10 yr yield ~4.1%, propping up the dollar.
DXY: Holding 101.5–103. A break >103 risks gold dipping toward $3,250.
Central Banks: EM buying (e.g. China) underpins a floor near $3,000.
Positioning: CFTC long positions down 20% since May, low crowding means sharper moves on either break.
OurTrade Plan
old 1-Hour Fade Trade Plan
Setup: Price backed off the July 2 high and is trading into the 23.6% Fib retracement (~3,327.8) on the 1-hour chart.
Short Entry: 3,327–3,330 zone
Stop Loss: Above 0% Fib (July 2 high) at ≈ 3,339.4
Targets:
1st Partial: 38.2% Fib at ≈ 3,320.6
2nd Partial: 50% Fib (secondary support) at ≈ 3,314.8
Optional Long Flip: Look for bullish signals (hammer, divergence) at 61.8% Fib / final support ≈ 3,309
Stay nimble, once volatility wakes up, gold will move fast.