Hims & Hers: Chart Weak, Business Strong
Behind the selloff: HIMS is scaling like a SaaS company with 76% gross margins, $194M net income, and $120M free cash flow.
Key Takeaways (TL;DR)
Stock sold off from $70s into the mid-$40s, but the financial engine is still intact.
Revenue TTM: ~$2.0B, up 130% in two years, 4x in three. Gross margin: ~76%.
Operating income positive, net income GAAP positive at ~$194M.
Free cash flow ~$120M.
Competitors have cut deals for GLP-1 access, signaling pharma’s willingness to bypass traditional pharmacy models.
HIMS 0.00%↑ moat remains its branded, vertically integrated funnel, not just drug fulfillment.
Technicals weak, but defined risk zone $41–45. Above $47, setup improves.
Introduction
Markets like simple stories. A stock that sells off must be broken. A stock that explodes must be golden. But simple stories often miss the truth.
HIMS 0.00%↑ has pulled back from its highs into the mid-$40s, leaving many to assume momentum is gone and the lawsuits and competition threats is the only narrative that matters. But when we look at the financials and cash flows, the picture is starkly different:
Revenue is scaling fast, with gross margins most software companies would envy.
Operating income and free cash flow are positive, a rare feat for healthcare disruptors.
The balance sheet carries more than a billion dollars in cash and essentially no net debt.
Add in a brand-led, vertically integrated funnel that AMZN 0.00%↑ does not (yet) replicate, and the risk/reward looks much better than the price action suggests.
This is a business that has proven it can generate cash while growing, in a healthcare vertical where consumer loyalty and condition-specific branding matter more than scale.
The chart is weak, the business is not.
Fundamental Analysis
Balance Sheet
Working Capital expanded to $1.08B, giving HIMS 0.00%↑ ample liquidity to scale operations and weather volatility.
Inventory nearly tripled YoY (to $142M from $41M), evidence of product demand scaling, though investors should monitor if working capital efficiency dips.
Total Liabilities also ballooned (to $1.31B from $119M a year prior), but equity growth to $562M keeps leverage manageable. Debt Jumped to $1.04B (vs. just $11M a year ago), looks alarming in isolation, but liquidity offsets it. Net cash is ~$80M positive even after debt.
Income Statement
Revenue: TTM sales hit $2.01B, a +4x growth from 2022 levels and +35% YoY (from $1.49B in mid-2024).
Gross Profit: $1.53B TTM. Gross margin at ~76% remains extremely strong, sustaining its SaaS-like profile despite consumer-facing model.
Operating Expenses: $1.41B, rising in step with revenue. SG&A intensity is stabilizing, with marketing spend still the key growth lever.
Operating Income: $126M TTM. Positive and expanding, showing HIMS 0.00%↑ has flipped from hyper-growth losses to scalable profitability.
Net Income: $194M TTM, with EPS of $0.88 basic ($0.79 diluted). Compare that to below break-even in 2023.
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow: $262M TTM. Strong and consistent, but Q2 2025 saw a rare negative OCF (-$19M) due to working capital swings (inventory build + prepaid assets). This is investment-driven, not structural.
Capex: $142M TTM. Reinvestment into fulfillment, digital infrastructure, and telehealth scaling.
Free Cash Flow (FCF): $120M TTM, comfortably positive even while investing heavily.
Balance sheet has shifted from lean growth to scale mode. Cash reserves + equity cushion execution cost, but leverage adds discipline risk. HIMS 0.00%↑ is evolving into a scaled healthcare platform with:
Hyper-growth revenue that’s already profitable.
Cash-rich balance sheet with dry powder for product expansion and strategic deals.
Debt-funded runway that requires execution discipline.
Margins and cash flow that rival SaaS peers, unusual for consumer healthcare.
Risks remain (execution, competition, leverage optics), but the fundamentals paint a company graduating from “startup” to profitable growth engine.
Technical Analysis
Weekly chart (macro trend)
Trend: Still in a corrective downtrend after topping ~$70 earlier this year. Candles have been compressing in the $40–50 band.
Moving averages:
Price below the 20-week EMA.
The 50-week EMA (~$39.44) is the structural support below.
RSI: 49, trying to stabilize after dipping sub-40. This is a neutral-to-weak momentum zone. HIMS 0.00%↑ has bounced from here in prior corrections.
MACD: Bearish crossover in play, histogram negative but flattening. Suggests downside pressure is easing but not yet reversed.
Elliott Wave shows mid-way in a downward C-Wave, with projected bottom at $21.42
The weekly picture shows HIMS has corrected ~35-40% from highs into Fib support. Bears still in control near-term, but the weekly structure suggests this is a make-or-break area.
Daily chart
Trend: Lower highs, lower lows since July. The recent attempt to reclaim $52 failed.
Moving averages:
Price under all major EMAs except the 200-day
All slopes are negative, showing short-term trend remains down.
The 200-day EMA (~$41.3) is rising R
RSI: Below 40, oversold zone but not extreme. Shows bearish momentum is stretched, but bounces so far have been weak.
MACD: Still below zero, but histogram is flattening. Momentum selling is slowing.
Volume: Downtrend volume lighter vs the uptrend leg, suggests this pullback is more profit-taking than panic liquidation.
Daily setup is bearish trend, but the $41–43 support cluster is clear. Bulls need a reclaim of $47 to flip the bias.
Intraday (2h / 1h / 30m)
Trend: Choppy but basing near $44.2. Attempts to bounce fade into $46–47.
EMAs (30m–2h):
Price hovering just under the 20/50 EMA bundle (~$45–46). Needs to clear this cluster for momentum shift.
RSI: On 30m–1h frames, RSI has cycled from oversold (~28–32) to mid-40s. Suggests sellers are losing momentum.
MACD: Intraday nearing positive but still weak amplitude.
Elliott structure (intraday): Looks like a completed ABC correction from the high of $70 at the end of July into the $42–44 range. If true, next impulse should start once $47 is reclaimed.
Intraday says sellers are fading, base is forming, but confirmation requires $46–47 reclaim.
Summary of levels
Support: $45.0 / $43.8 / $41.5 (major Fib + 200D EMA).
Resistance: $46.2 / $47.9 / $52.5.
Invalidation: Close below $39.5 would break the structure.
Trading takeaway
Accumulation zone: $41–45 with tight stops below $39.5.
Swing trigger: Reclaim of $47 confirms the next impulse, with targets of $52.5 then $57–62.
Macro invalidation: Weekly RSI failing under 40 with breakdown below $39 could lead to a possible re-test of $35.
Bottom line
HIMS 0.00%↑ is paying for growth, but unlike most disruptors, it’s paying out of positive operating cash. GAAP income is noisy, but the real signal is 76% gross margins, >$250M in CFO, >$1B in cash.
The technicals are hit, the stock looks weak, but the business doesn’t. This isn’t just a generic pharmacy. It’s a branded, vertically integrated telehealth funnel with recurring subscriptions and high LTV. Amazon is a competitor at the molecule level, but not yet at the relationship level.
If HIMS 0.00%↑ bases in the low-to-mid $40s and reclaims $47, risk/reward tilts favorable. If it breaks $40, step aside and reassess.
For patient investors, this is a weak-tape entry into a cash-generative, asset-light healthcare brand with years of runway.