IBKR at the Cusp: Will Wave 5 Finish Strong or Fizzle?
A friendly, no‑jargon look at the charts and the fundamentals before tonight’s Q2 print
Hey everyone, IBKR reports after today’s close, and I know many of us have been debating whether this leg up ends in fireworks or a fizzle. We’ve talked about wave counts, implied vol crushes, and the odds of a beat versus a miss. Let’s pull it all together into a simple, human‑friendly check‑in on where things stand, both technically and fundamentally, before the market opens tomorrow.
Key Takeaways
Trend intact… for now: Price sits near the 0.786 Fibonacci of its multi‑year rally (~$60.40), with moving averages stacked bull‑ishly on higher‑time frames.
Overbought signals: Shorter frames (2‑hour, 30‑min) show overbought StochRSI and a Bollinger squeeze, classic pre‑earnings fatigue.
Fundamentals look “okay”: Consensus sees EPS ~$0.47–0.50 on $1.36 billion revenue, powered by ~39% DART growth, but no huge upside surprise baked in.
Wave 5 exhaustion risk: If IBKR merely delivers an in‑line beat and neutral guidance, that could mark the crest of wave 5 and trigger a swift 5–8% pullback.
Technical Snapshot
Up‑trend still in charge: On both the daily and weekly charts, price is well above the 50/100/200 SMAs. Shorter EMAs on intraday frames remain stacked bullishly.
Resistance at the top: The 0.786 Fib level of the entire 2023–25 advance sits at ~$60.4, where we’re knocking right now.
Overbought on the short clocks: StochRSI on 2‑hour and 30‑minute charts are topping out, and Bollinger Bands are pinching. Those often precede a brief pause or retracement.
Support to watch:
$58.8–59.2 zone (20 EMA on 2‑hour / short‑term Fib levels)
$56–57 zone (50 SMA on daily / 0.382–0.5 Fib of the latest leg)
Wave count note: We’ve likely completed a five‑wave impulsive advance since the spring low. If this print disappoints even slightly, it could mark the end of wave 5 and usher in the A‑wave of a corrective pullback.
Fundamental Snapshot
DART growth driving revenues: Daily Average Revenue Trades should land ~3.3 million (≈39% YoY growth). Macro jitters (tariff headlines, Fed on hold) have kept clients active.
Revenue/EPS consensus:
Revenue: ~$1.36 billion
EPS: ~$0.47–0.50
Interest income steady: With rates paused, net interest will likely come in line with forecasts—no big surprise upside unless they squeeze funding costs further.
Expenses & guidance: Management’s historically disciplined on costs and tends to give neutral‑to‑cautious guidance. A “beat, but no raise” is the most probable script.
Peer color: Goldman and MS saw ~20% trading rev growth; Schwab flagged solid fee income. IBKR should keep pace, but not outperform by a mile.
Bottom Line
IBKR enters tonight riding a bull trend that’s technically overextended. Fundamentally, a modest beat is likely driven by strong DARTs, but don’t expect a blow‑out guide. That sets up the perfect recipe for a classic “sell the news” if they fail to deliver great cost and guidance surprises. In plain English: we could easily see a small upside surprise followed by a swift 5–8% retracement, wrapping up this wave 5 move. Strap in, wish for a beat (or brace for a fade), and we’ll see which way the tape chops tomorrow. Good luck, and talk soon!
This is not investment advice, just our personal take.