JPMorgan (JPM): At the Top of the Wave or Just Getting Started?
Earnings hit tomorrow - but long-term structure and fundamentals point to a deeper story worth watching.
JPM 0.00%↑ reports earnings tomorrow, but the bigger story isn’t in the next quarter - it’s in the structure unfolding across timeframes. Elliott Waves, momentum, and deepening fundamentals suggest this isn’t just a short-term swing. We’re possibly approaching a major intermediate top... or the setup for Wave (5) liftoff over the next 6–12 months.
This post breaks it all down: what the multi-timeframe chart says, how JPM’s balance sheet is evolving, why valuation still looks reasonable, and what kind of trade/investment setup is actually worth considering here.
Let’s get to work.
Quick Take
Earnings due July 15. Expect volatility.
Technical structure shows JPM may have completed Wave (3) or (5) on weekly/daily. Signs of a corrective ABC underway.
Momentum (MACD, RSI) diverging downward on multiple frames, supporting a near-term retracement.
Support range: $260–$275. Breakdown below $248 = trend damage.
Fundamentals strong: Record revenue, improving ROE, EPS expected to hit $21.50 by FY27.
Valuation still fair: FY24 P/E ~13.2x, FY26 ~13.3x with 2.4% dividend yield.
Long-term thesis remains intact - but entry timing is key.
Fundamental Analysis: JPMorgan's Core is Getting Stronger
Let’s start with the numbers that matter.
Revenue & EPS Growth
FY24E Revenue: $180.5B, up from $160.1B in FY23
FY24E EPS: $18.22, growing to $21.50 by FY27E
CAGR from FY23–FY27E:
EPS: ~7.2%
Revenue: ~4.3%
Net income for FY24 expected to hit $58.1B, up ~18% YoY
JPM is hitting its stride on both interest and non-interest income. Net interest income guidance sits around $93.6B for FY24. Non-interest income is ramping as well, driven by investment banking rebound and asset management.
Profitability & Returns
ROE FY24E: 17.3%
ROA FY24E: 1.47%
Net income per employee: $183K, up from $159K last year
Strong execution is evident. This is elite-level operating performance for a global bank. It’s worth noting that JPM has maintained a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) above 20% for four straight years.
Balance Sheet Strength
Total deposits: $2.4T+
Tier 1 Capital: $345B
CET1 ratio stable at ~15.7–16.8%
Tangible Book Value per Share: $116 (Dec ‘24) → $134 by FY27E
Valuation
FY24 P/E: 13.2x
FY26 P/E: 13.3x
FY24 PEG: ~2.3x, compressing to ~2.0x by FY27
Price/Book (FY24): 2.1x, in line with historical average
Dividend yield: ~2.4%, with DPS growing to $7.01 by FY27
Valuation is not cheap in absolute terms - but it’s not expensive relative to quality, balance sheet, or forward earnings power. If you believe rates stay higher for longer, JPM is arguably the highest-quality rate play in the financial sector.
Technical Analysis: All Waves Point to This Moment
Monthly/Weekly Structure
The long-term Elliott Wave count suggests JPM is entering a Wave (5) advance after completing a clear ABC correction into 2022. Price has broken out of a multi-year base and tagged the 1.618 extension of the prior move near $328.50 as the first macro target.
However, this latest run shows signs of maturing.
Weekly Timeframe
Wave (3) may have completed near $296–$300
Current decline could be Wave (4) correction with projected support at:
$274 (9 SMA)
$243 (Fib .618 retracement)
$173 (200 MA – unlikely unless macro shocks)
Daily + 2h + 1h Timeframes
Daily: MACD rolling over, RSI <50, bearish divergence from June highs
2h/1h: Ending diagonal + triple top near $296.
Short-term corrective ABC unfolding
Wave (a) likely heading toward $268–$260 support zone, where 200MA and Fib overlap
Momentum indicators (MACD, Stoch RSI) across 1h–2h are rolling into corrective mode - consistent with wave (4) retrace before final Wave (5) attempt.
“Corrections aren’t weaknesses - they’re opportunities in disguise.”
Conclusion: Fundamentals Strong, Technicals Cautious
JPM’s financial engine is running better than ever. Operating leverage, asset growth, and capital return all point to a bank that’s dominating its peers while still offering modest valuation multiples.
But the chart is stretched. Wave (3) may be done. Wave (4) is likely underway. MACD, RSI, volume - all support a cooling phase before continuation.
This is not the ideal time to initiate a large position - but it is the time to prepare for one.
Trade/Investment Plan
Scenario A: Patience Pays (Ideal Setup)
Wait for retrace into $260–$275
Watch for MACD cross up + RSI >50 on 2h/1h
Enter starter swing or long-term tranche near 200EMA ($268)
Add on confirmed Wave (5) breakout above $296
Stop: below $248
Targets:
$328 (1.618 extension)
$406 (2.618 ext)
Long-term: $484–$532 if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario B: No Dip, Earnings Breakout
If JPM gaps above $300 post-earnings with volume, chase breakout with tight stop
Target $328–$350 swing level
Not ideal risk/reward without confirmation of Wave (5)
Scenario C: Breakdown Below $248
Technical thesis invalidated
Exit longs
Monitor for reset near $225–$230 range
Final Word
JPM isn’t a meme stock. It’s the market’s most systemically important bank with 9-figure earnings power, 20% RoTE, and a breakout-ready Elliott Wave structure.
But it’s also looking tired into earnings.
Let it breathe. Then get ready. The next leg up might be the one worth riding - if you time it right.