Nebius Group (NBIS): Riding the AI Growth Rocket
From startup spin-out to hyperscale contender: can Nebius sustain its breakneck pace?
When growth is the game, scale is the only name.
Nebius Group NBIS 0.00%↑ has exploded onto the AI-infrastructure scene, vaulting from $4.7 M in revenue in 2021 to $161 M TTM into mid-2025. That’s a compound annual growth rate near 350%, powered by both one-off Yandex proceeds and the surging global demand for custom AI compute. In this deep-dive, we’ll explore:
Why growth has become Nebius’s signature metric
How fundamentals and technicals intersect for a growth-centric play
A trade approach keyed to scaling momentum with risk controls
Key Takeaways
Revenue CAGR (2021–2024): ~350%
Q1 2025 YoY: +385% (from $11.4 M → $55.3 M)
Forecast (2025 ARR): $750 M–$1 B (+500% vs. 2024)
Balance Sheet: $5.4 B from Yandex divestment + $1 B convertibles = deep runway
Technicals: Strong base at $49–$52; upside to $63 (1.618 fib) → $73 (2.618)
Plan: Buy dips $49–$52; targets $63 / $73; stop $47.50
Bet on the curve, only if you respect the drawdown.
Fundamental Analysis: Growth in Focus
1. Stratospheric Revenue
2021 → 2022: $4.7 M → $20.9 M (+346%)
2022 → 2023: $20.9 M → $118 M (+462%)
2023 → TTM 2025: $118 M → $161 M (+37% ann.)
Q1 YoY: +385% (from $11.4 M → $55.3 M)
2. Investing to Grow
R&D CAGR (2021–2024): 82% (from $25 M → $145 M)
SG&A CAGR: 154% (from $18 M → $293 M)
EBITDA: Loss narrowing 12% YoY in Q1 2025 (–$70.9 M → –$62.6 M)
3. Cash & Runway
Operating burn: –$15 M → –$352 M (2021→2024)
Financing: $5.4 B (Yandex) + $1 B (convertibles)
Leverage: Traditional debt D/E ~0.2%
4. What’s Next?
ARR goal: $750 M–$1 B by end-2025 (+500% vs. 2024)
Risks: Capital-intensive builds, utilization hurdles, competition vs. hyperscalers.
Grow fast, but keep an eye on the burn.
Technical Analysis: Momentum Meets Growth
Weekly Base: $49–$50 support (200-week SMA + 61.8% fib).
Key Resistance: $55–$56 zone; break → $63.5 (1.618 extension), then $114.6 long term.
Daily Fib: Buy zone $52.7–$50.9 (38.2%–61.8% retracement).
Momentum: MACD flat, StochRSI neutral—setting up for next leg.
Volume Profile: Thicker on up-moves, lighter on dips—healthy accumulation.
When the trend is your friend, use pullbacks to join the party.
Our Investment Approach
Entry
Aggressive: $49.00–$50.00
Conservative: Wait >$52.70 daily close
Sizing & Risk
Stop at $47.50
Targets
Short: $63.00 (+25%)
Mid: $73.00 (+45%)
Long: $85–$95 if $1 B ARR is hit
Checkpoints
Q2 2025 ARR updates
EBITDA breakeven progress
Any guidance revisions
Bottom Line
Nebius is pure growth spectacular top-line momentum, deep pockets, but capital-intensive and not yet profitable. If you want AI-infra upside without perfect timing, layering in around $50 with tight risk control offers an attractive asymmetry.
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