NVIDIA Just Hit $4 Trillion. Should You Buy the Top of the AI Mountain?
Why this milestone might be a warning, not a green light (and where the real opportunity lies).
The world’s most important chipmaker just became the first company to touch $4T. But when hype meets exhaustion, even giants can stumble.
NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑ just did what no other company in history has accomplished.
On July 9, 2025, it became the first public company to touch a $4 trillion market cap, outpacing Apple and Microsoft, if only briefly. Wall Street cheered, social media lit up, and analysts raced to raise their price targets. For many, this was confirmation: AI isn't just the future. It’s the economy.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: when stocks go vertical, they eventually need to breathe.
Yes, NVIDIA is a once-in-a-generation company with once-in-a-generation financials. But with euphoric sentiment, overstretched valuations, and a clear topping structure across technical timeframes, the risk/reward here is beginning to skew.
We went through multi-timeframe charts and 3 years of fundamentals to ask a simple but crucial question: is this a time to get in, stay in, or wait for a better price?
TL;DR
NVIDIA is a beast: revenue and cash flow are exploding, with AI driving multi-billion dollar tailwinds.
But the stock is tired: we're seeing technical exhaustion, with wave (5) topping patterns and RSI/MACD divergences.
Valuation is extreme: at $4T, NVIDIA is trading at 50x FCF, while geopolitical risks, slowing growth, and export headwinds linger.
We’re staying patient: medium-term correction likely. Long-term opportunity exists—but not here, not now.
The Fundamentals: Beautiful, but Fully Priced
It’s hard to overstate what NVIDIA has accomplished.
In just 3 years, the company went from $26B in annual revenue to nearly $150B. That’s a 5.5x increase, driven almost entirely by the AI revolution—where NVIDIA owns the shovel in a digital gold rush.
Here’s what stands out:
Free cash flow (FCF) now sits at $72B trailing twelve months—up from just $3.8B in FY2023.
Operating margins are near 58%. Gross margins north of 70%.
Cash on hand is over $8B, with no net debt.
Buybacks are aggressive: $50B in repurchases last year alone.
On paper, this is elite.
But the problem isn’t the company, it’s the price.
At $162/share and a $4T market cap, NVIDIA now trades at:
~52x trailing EPS
~50x FCF
~43x EV/EBITDA
For context, that’s more expensive than most SaaS businesses. And much of that growth is already priced in.
Can NVIDIA keep compounding from here? Sure. But any slowdown in AI demand, tightening export restrictions, or simply investor fatigue, and this valuation begins to wobble.
The Technicals: A Classic Topping Structure
Let’s zoom in.
NVIDIA's chart across every timeframe—weekly, daily, 2h, 30min—shows the same thing: a textbook Elliott Wave 5 impulse that looks increasingly exhausted.
Wave 5 has landed near $164.5, and we’re starting to see momentum flatten. RSI is extended on the longer terms, MACD is rolling over, and price is stretched above all key moving averages. The chart isn’t breaking down yet, but it’s clearly struggling to break up.
We’re also sitting near major Fibonacci extension resistance levels:
1.0 = $168.16
1.618 = $178.46
On weekly Fibs, $189–227 is possible, but only after a healthy pullback
Meanwhile, retracement targets are forming:
0.382 = $134.70
0.50 = $125.52
0.618 = $116.34
These are zones we want to buy, not avoid.
Because if NVIDIA does correct (and it should) it’ll likely head right into these levels before stabilizing.
The News Cycle: Hype Is Peaking
Here’s what’s flooding headlines:
At the same time, U.S.-China export restrictions are tightening, chip supply constraints are looming, and investor positioning is historically crowded. Even bulls are quietly hedging.
Every great growth story eventually faces a pause. And this feels like that moment for NVIDIA.
The Playbook: What We’re Doing (and Not Doing)
We’re not shorting NVIDIA. That’s a fool’s game in a secular leader.
But we’re not buying here either.
This is how we’re positioning instead:
Scenario A: The Correction
Price fails to hold $152
Wave (a) takes us toward $145, then $134
MACD/RSI reset. That’s our entry zone
Scenario B: One Last Spike
Break above $164.41 → quick blow-off above $175
Still looking to fade that move for a cleaner long later
Scenario C: The Long Game
Wait for $125–134
If we see strong bullish momentum and reset indicators, we’ll start building a core position
This is where the long-term value re-emerges
Final Thoughts
$NVDA is the AI revolution. It’s also the most expensive stock in the market.
It just became the first $4 trillion company ever. That’s historic. But milestones don’t equal entry signals. In fact, they often signal tops.
We’re long-term bullish. But we’re also disciplined.
Let it breathe. Let it correct. And when the fear returns, when headlines flip bearish, and the chart resets. That’s when we buy.
Stay sharp. Stay patient. And don’t chase parabolas.
The information in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the author’s personal research and analysis, which may be subject to error or omission. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.