NVIDIA Earnings Preview: The Bar Is High, Guidance Will Be Key
NVDA is set to report earnings after the close. The market expects another blockbuster quarter, but with the stock already up big, guidance will determine where it trades next.
NVIDIA has been the face of the AI boom. Every earnings report has carried outsized importance not only for NVDA 0.00%↑ shareholders, but for the entire semiconductor sector and broader tech market.
Wall Street expects:
EPS: $1.10 (FactSet consensus)
Revenue: ~$31.4B
Gross margin: ~74%
Those numbers represent massive YoY growth. But the bigger question isn’t this quarter, it’s whether demand momentum can sustain into 2026.
Market Expectations
Investors are already positioned for a beat on both EPS and revenue. The stock’s sharp recovery into earnings reflects this.
Whisper numbers on the Street are even higher, meaning an inline print won’t move the needle.
The real swing factor: guidance. If management guides Q3/Q4 revenue above ~$32–33B with margins intact, the stock could break higher.
Guidance Scenarios
Bull case:
Guidance comfortably above consensus ($33B+ rev, ~74% GM).
Cloud/AI demand still accelerating.
Stock reaction: breakout toward $190–205 near term, with upside extension into the $227–230 zone on momentum.
Base case (most likely):
Beat on EPS/revenue, but conservative guide citing macro, supply, or geopolitical headwinds.
Stock reaction: choppy, possible sell-the-news pullback into $172–176 before resuming higher.
Bear case:
Inline numbers and cautious guide under $31B rev.
Stock reaction: sharp downside toward $160, where strong Fib support lies.
Market Backdrop
This report doesn’t exist in a vacuum:
AI optimism is still strong, but investors are rotating into lagging tech names.
Rates remain a pressure point, meaning growth stocks need flawless execution to sustain premiums.
$NVDA trades ~35x forward EPS high, but not extreme given growth. Any sign of slowing demand would hit multiples quickly.
Technical Setup
Near-term support: $176–178 (Fib 0.618 zone, daily cluster).
Stronger support: $165, then $150.
Resistance: $189 (Fib 1.0), then $205 (Fib 1.272 extension).
Medium-term breakout target: $227 (Fib 1.618).
On the weekly timeframe, NVDA just cleared the $175 Fib zone. A strong earnings beat with solid guidance could ignite a run toward $200+. Conversely, a weak guide risks a retrace to the $172–176 cluster.
Takeaway
NVDA 0.00%↑ will almost certainly beat the headline numbers. The question is whether management validates the AI growth story into 2026—or plays cautious with guidance.
The stock is at an inflection:
Breakout toward $200–227 on strong guide.
Pullback toward $172 if investors see “peak AI” concerns.
Either way, this is the most consequential report of the season.
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.