Oscar Health (OSCR) Earnings Anticipation - Update 3
Position Managed. Add Timing Critical.
Oscar Health reports earnings tomorrow, but the technical groundwork is already laid. While the market repriced guidance lower last month, the chart structure may be setting the stage for the next leg higher. The A–B–C correction from the June highs appears complete at $13.81. What matters now is execution - by the company, and by us.
We’re already long. This update is not about if to buy. It’s about when to add.
What’s New
No new fundamentals have emerged since Oscar’s pre-announced guide-down. But technically, the price structure has matured:
— Wave (C) appears complete at $13.81
— MACD basing on daily and turning up on 1H–2H
— RSI rising off oversold on all short- and mid-term timeframes
— Price compression near the 61.8% Fib retracement of the full $4.72 to $22.30 rally
— Volume decline consistent with end-of-correction behavior
The stock is coiled. The move will come.
Updated Wave Count
Wave (5) topped at $22.30 in June.
Wave A fell into the $14s.
Wave B retraced to $20.70.
Wave C looks to have been completed at $13.81.
A small impulsive move appears to be building off the $13.81 low. If this is a new Wave 1, the breakout level to confirm structure is $15.54.
Momentum and Structure
RSI on the daily chart has lifted off oversold, now printing near 43. Shorter timeframes (1H–2H) are showing consistent higher lows, with MACD attempting a bullish crossover. On the 30m and 1H, momentum has already flipped bullish. This confluence supports the thesis that the selling pressure has exhausted.
EMAs remain stacked but flat. Price is tightly wound beneath the 20, 50, and 100-day lines, which are converging into a pressure zone. Breaks from this type of structure are typically impulsive and directional.
Execution Plan
We are exposed. The decision now is where to increase size.
The base accumulation zone is $13.80 to $14.00. This is where compression is occurring above the Fib 61.8% retracement, and where MACD is beginning to turn. Adds here require a tight leash, with invalidation on a close below $13.50.
A higher-probability add occurs above $15.54. This was the top of the initial bounce from the $13.81 low and marks the likely completion of Wave 1 in the new structure. A daily close above this level confirms a fresh impulsive wave is underway. Adds above $15.54 can use a stop under $14.80 with upside to $17.00 and then $22.00.
If a breakout to $17.00 occurs and price pulls back into the $15.50–16.00 zone, that would mark the ideal Wave 2 pullback - another opportunity to scale in for the Wave 3 leg toward $22 and beyond.
Bottom Line
Oscar remains a long-term position. The recent guide-down reanchors the pace of profitability, not the long-term thesis. Technically, structure remains constructive. Price has completed a clean corrective cycle, momentum is shifting, and the risk-reward for adding is becoming favorable.
This is a setup that doesn’t require guessing. Add methodically into the base with stops defined. Scale more aggressively only once confirmation comes on a break above $15.54.
We don’t force trades. We wait for structure.