HOOD 0.00%↑ isn’t the same stock that IPO’d and crashed. It’s leaner, profitable, and rapidly expanding. EPS is positive, margins are exploding, and the chart’s prepping for a breakout.
HOOD fundamentals: EPS turned positive, ROIC now 19% (2024), Gross margin grew from ~50% (2020) to 93%, MAUs up YoY, though pace is slowing and FCF projected positive by FY25. This isn’t a story stock anymore - it’s turning operationally strong.
HOOD just completed a 5-wave Elliott impulse with wave (5) peaking near $85–87. RSI is elevated, MACD rolling = short-term pullback risk. Retracement zones: $76 (0.382), $72 (0.5), $64 (0.618). Wait for these levels - don’t chase. Here’s how to do this …
TL;DR
EPS just turned positive in 2025
ROIC flipped positive and now sits at 19%
Gross margin expanded from ~50% (2020) to 93% (2024)
Monthly active users (MAUs) surged YoY, growth expected to moderate
Free cash flow projected to turn positive by fiscal year-end 2025
Service offerings expanded: Gold, banking, credit card and AI tools
Technically: 5-wave impulse completed with wave (5) top near $85–87
Ideal entries: $76, $72, and $64
Swing targets: $127, $165, $187. Ideal entries are $76, $72, and $64 with targets up to $165+. Execution matters, but this setup has serious potential.
1. Fundamental Analysis
Robinhood has made a quiet but powerful shift from speculative tech to a real, margin-driven business.
EPS: After years of negative earnings, $HOOD posted positive EPS for the first time in 2025. While still early, this marks an inflection in its business model and cost control.
Gross Margin: Exploded from ~50% in 2020 to a staggering 93% in 2024. This rivals some of the highest-margin fintechs and reflects the increasing share of recurring revenues from subscriptions, interest income, and payment-for-order-flow.
ROIC: Returned positive in 2024, currently sitting at around 19%, showing capital is now being deployed effectively after years of burn.
Free Cash Flow: Still negative in recent filings, but company guidance and consensus estimates forecast FCF turning positive in fiscal 2025 - which would be a first for Robinhood.
MAUs: Monthly active users saw a major YoY spike over the past 12 months. The company has acknowledged growth will moderate, but the step-change in user engagement supports a higher revenue floor.
Service Expansion:
Banking: FDIC-insured accounts with 4% APY
Robinhood Gold: 3.2M subscribers and growing
AI Tool (Cortex): Coming in 2025 for personalized insights
Credit Card: Via X1 acquisition
Robinhood Strategies: Wealth management for passive investors, 0.25% fee
Despite a high forward P/E, growth-adjusted metrics like PEG suggest valuation could be justified post-pullback. Investors must factor in execution risk - but the trend is clearly toward operating leverage and service-driven revenue expansion.
2. Technical Analysis
Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Structure
Robinhood appears to have completed a clean 5-wave impulse from the 2023 bottom:
Wave (1): Base formation breakout
Wave (3): Climactic volume expansion
Wave (5): Extension topping at ~$85–87
The current price action suggests wave (5) may be complete, supported by:
RSI near overbought (2h, daily, and weekly)
MACD histogram rolling over
Declining volume on new highs
Retracement Zones
Using Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally (~$61.9 to $85):
0.382: ~$76 (first support, aggressive entry)
0.5: ~$72 (ideal)
0.618: ~$64 (strong support, high R/R)
All 3 zones are valid entry ranges based on wave-2 or wave-B reversion logic.
Risk Levels
Avoid new entries above $83 - you’re buying into resistance
Stops: Below $60 for all setups
Trade Plan Summary
Entry zones: $76, $72, $64
Risk: Stop-loss below $60
First target: $85–89
Swing targets: $127, $165, $187 (based on Fib extensions)Bottom Line
HOOD is finally becoming what early investors hoped: a high-margin, capital-light platform with sticky users and service-led growth. A short-term pullback is likely, but that’s what makes this setup attractive.
Patience is key. The chart will hand you a better entry - and the fundamentals now make it worth taking.
