Trade Plan Update: Week 2 of June 2026
A 60-stock weekly playbook for navigating a broadening rally, separating real Trend-Hold setups from dangerous chase trades.
This week’s edge: a hot jobs report broke the rally on Friday and the broad indexes lost their trend, so the regime has flipped defensive. Respect the breakdowns, lean on the quality and defensive names that held, and demand a reclaim before re-engaging the growth complex.
The tape broke hard on Friday and erased the prior week’s gains in a single session. A hot June jobs report sent yields jumping, the 2-year up 19 basis points to 4.17% and the 10-year to 4.55% from 4.45% a week ago, and the rate-sensitive end of the market repriced violently.
QQQ fell 4.8% on Friday to close the week down 4.5% at 705.06, while SPY lost 2.6% on the day and 2.5% on the week to 737.55, and both indexes lost their Trend-Hold.
The damage was concentrated where duration and beta run highest. Long-duration tech and AI names led the decline: Palantir (down 13%) and Baidu (down 10%) fell all the way from Trend-Hold to Breakdown, and the semis cohort cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional (AMD down 10%, Broadcom and Intel down 14%).
The high-beta and crypto complex was routed, with Redwire down 25%, the Ethereum ETF down 22%, AST SpaceMobile down 18%, the XRP ETF down 17%, and SoFi and Shopify down double digits and back into Breakdown.
Precious and industrial metals cracked as real yields rose, with gold breaking down and silver and copper miners rolling into Repair.
The tell was where money went, not just where it left: the defensive and value pockets caught a clear bid, with Oscar Health up 10%, UnitedHealth up 5%, Exxon up 3%, Walmart up 3%, and Berkshire reclaiming full Trend-Hold. This was a rates-and-valuation repricing, not a credit event: high-yield credit barely moved on the week and VIXY rose only to 24.3, elevated but far from a panic spike.
The posture for the week ahead is defensive: the broad indexes have lost their trend, breadth has rolled over, and the right stance is to respect the breakdowns, lean on the quality and defensive names that held, and demand a reclaim before re-engaging the growth complex.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: BRK.B. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMD, AMZN, ASTS, AVGO, CRWV, INTC, LRCX, MSFT, QQQ, SPY, TGT, TSM, XOVR. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: ADBE, COPX, SLV. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, DG, GLD, LULU, META, NKE, NVO, PLTR, SHOP, SOFI. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: OSCR +10%, PINS +7%, UNH +5%, XOM +3% to the upside; RDW -25%, ETHA -22%, ASTS -17%, XRPI -17% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: AMAT, SMSN.L, ITA, AIXA.DE, AAPL, BRK.B (+2 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the quality and defensive names that held their trend, the only longs worth engaging in a defensive tape.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: IFX.DE, PANW, RBRK, NBIS, LLY. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BABA, BIDU, COST, DG, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LMT, LULU, META, NFLX, NKE, NOC, NVO, PALL, PLTR, SHOP, SOFI, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
Top 10 Actionable Setups
These are the highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry. Full detail, levels, and both stops for each.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Last close: 453.01
Setup: Semi capital-equipment bellwether that held its Trend-Hold while most of the semis cooled. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 448.98 as first support. Daily RSI 53.9 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; momentum is firming, accumulate into support rather than strength. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 348.73 (23.0% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback:
