Trade Plan Update - Week 3 - July 2026
This week's edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 18 and leadership thinned. Trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and lean on the name
The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 743.29, Transitional and down 1.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 695.33 is Transitional and down 4.2% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns went from 15 to 18, Repairs from 10 to 13, and Trend-Holds from 19 to 12. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 7 to 22, a clear risk-off tilt.
The pressure hit the highest-beta growth and AI names: PANW +10%, XOM +6%, ADBE +6%, INTU +6% to the upside, against ASTS -21%, NBIS -19%, CRWV -18%, RDW -17% on the downside.
Fresh damage showed up in BIDU, COPX, LMT, LULU, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in DG, NVO, XOM. This reads as a defensive rotation, not a systemic stress event. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: DG, NVO, XOM. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: ADBE. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: INTU, MSFT, PLTR. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AMAT, AMD, FFIV, NVDA, OSCR, QQQ, RBRK, SPY. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AVGO, GOOG, IFX.DE, NBIS, NKE, SMSN.L, XOVR. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, COPX, LMT, LULU, NOC, PALL, SOFI. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: PANW +10%, XOM +6%, ADBE +6%, INTU +6% to the upside; ASTS -21%, NBIS -19%, CRWV -18%, RDW -17% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: AMZN, RTX, LLY, UNH, FTI. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: AAPL. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ASTS, BIDU, COPX, COST, CRWV, GLD, LMT, LULU, NFLX, NOC, ORCL, PALL, RDW, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Last close: 247.23
Setup: Amazon.com held its Trend-Hold, little changed on the week. Full Trend-Hold on both the daily and weekly, the cleanest structure in the framework, with first support at the 1D EMA20 (245.75). Daily RSI 51.3 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish fading; the trend is intact but uncommitted, favor a defined pullback. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 235.53 (4.7% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Market view: megacap cloud and consumer, benefits as growth leadership broadens; tracking the broad tape this week.
