Trade Plan Update: Week 3 of June 2026
A 60-stock weekly playbook for navigating a broadening rally, separating real Trend-Hold setups from dangerous chase trades.
This week’s edge: the jobs-report scare unwound, yields eased, and the broad indexes reclaimed their trend, but leadership rotated hard out of mega-cap software and into semiconductors, cyclicals, and value. Favor the names that reclaimed Trend-Hold, stand clear of the broken software complex, and keep risk measured into Wednesday’s Fed decision.
The jobs-report scare that broke the tape a week ago was largely unwound this week, and the broad indexes climbed back above their trend.
Yields eased as the rate panic faded, with the 2-year slipping to 4.09% from 4.17% and the 10-year easing to 4.48% from 4.55%, and volatility cooled, the VIX falling from its spike near 21 back toward 17 by Friday after a brief midweek pop.
SPY gained 0.6% on the week to 741.75 and QQQ rose 2.3% to 721.32, both reclaiming their Trend-Hold and both closing Friday green. Credit never flinched, with high-yield spreads steady all week, confirming this was a rate scare rather than a stress event.
The standout was the rotation beneath the surface. The semiconductors that were crushed in the Friday selloff staged a violent V-shaped recovery off the washout low: Intel rallied 26%, Applied Materials 25%, Lam Research 21%, ASML 14%, and AMD 10%, dragging the chip complex and the Nasdaq back into Trend-Hold alongside Taiwan Semi.
Money also rotated into cyclicals and defensive value, with copper miners reclaiming Trend-Hold, Target up 10% and Dollar General up 11% leading retail, Oscar Health up 15%, and Costco, Lockheed, Nike, and Walmart all repairing off their lows.
The clear loser was mega-cap software: Oracle fell 14% and Adobe 19% on disappointing earnings, Microsoft bled steadily into a Breakdown, Apple lost its Trend-Hold, and Intuit stayed broken. The week ahead is dominated by the Federal Reserve, whose rate decision and updated projections land Wednesday, June 17, the single event most likely to set direction for the rate-sensitive groups that just recovered.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, COPX, FTI, INTC, LRCX, QQQ, SPY, TGT, TSM, XOVR. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: DG, NVO, RTX. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: COST, LMT, NKE, WMT. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AAPL, ORCL, RBRK, RDW. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AMZN, ASTS. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: ADBE, MSFT, PINS, SLV. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: INTC +26%, AMAT +25%, LRCX +21%, OSCR +15% to the upside; ADBE -19%, RDW -18%, ORCL -14%, ASTS -12% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: SPY, QQQ, XOVR, FTI, TSM, COPX (+2 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: OSCR, UNH, LLY, ASML, LRCX. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: AMAT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ADBE, BABA, BIDU, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOC, PALL, PINS, PLTR, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Last close: 741.75
Setup: The least flashy setup in the book and the cleanest read on broad-market repair, the S&P 500 reclaimed its Trend-Hold as the jobs-report selloff unwound. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 740.81 as first support. Daily RSI 53.0 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 694.65 (6.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Entries: Pullback: 722.48 to 741.01 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting on it) · Breakout: above 760.40 (20-day high)
Targets: T1: 760.40 (1D 20-bar high) · T2: 796.06 (1D Fib ext 127.2) · T3: 828.93 (1W Fib ext 127.2)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 722.59 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 2.6% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 694.65 (1D EMA200); break shifts to Transitional.
Holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (740.81); take partials at T1 (760.40).
Not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (740.81) or above 760.40.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Last close: 721.32
