This week’s edge: the AI and semiconductor leadership did not just hold last week’s bounce, it broadened and accelerated, pulling Alphabet, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the AI-compute names into Trend-Hold, while last week’s defensive and value bounce reversed and energy, defense, and staples rolled back over. Lean into the broadening AI and growth leadership on pullbacks, and stay clear of the failed defensive trade and the still-broken software complex.
Market Conditions
The market spent a holiday-shortened week, with the cash session closed Friday for Juneteenth, consolidating last week’s recovery and then pushing it further, and the move had a clear character: the AI and semiconductor complex did not just hold its bounce, it broadened and accelerated.
QQQ rose 2.7% on the week to 740.62 and reclaimed a clean Trend-Hold, while SPY added 0.7% to 746.74 and small caps outperformed with the Russell up about 2%, even as the Dow finished roughly flat, a textbook tell that money was rotating toward growth and away from old-economy value. The Federal Reserve met Wednesday and held rates steady, and the front end firmed in response, the 2-year backing up to 4.19% from about 4.09% while the 10-year held near 4.46% and the 30-year sat at 4.90%, a modest curve-flattening the equity tape took in stride.
Volatility kept draining, with VIX-tracking products sliding through the week, and credit stayed calm, high-yield spreads steady, confirming a risk-on backdrop rather than a stress event. The leadership story was the AI-infrastructure surge: Nebius jumped 23% and CoreWeave 17% as the AI-compute names went vertical, Taiwan Semi rose 9%, Applied Materials 9%, Broadcom 8%, Intel 8%, and Lam Research 6%, dragging Alphabet, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Rubrik back into Trend-Hold and broadening the advance beyond the chips into megacap growth.
The flip side was the failure of last week’s defensive trade: the value, energy, and defense names that bounced a week ago rolled back over, with TechnipFMC down 8% and Exxon down 6% as energy broke down, Lockheed sliding 5% into Breakdown with Northrop falling 5% alongside it, and Walmart and Costco losing their repair and breaking down again.
Mega-cap software stayed broken, with Microsoft, Adobe, and Intuit all still in Breakdown and Apple still below its trend. With the Fed now behind us and no comparable catalyst on the near-term calendar, the tape is being driven by the AI-leadership rotation, and the path of least resistance stays higher so long as that leadership holds its trend.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AVGO, CRWV, GOOG, NVDA, RBRK. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AMZN, SOFI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: COPX, FFIV. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
·Lost the trend, into Repair: FTI. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: COST, LMT, NVO, WMT, XOM. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: NBIS +23%, CRWV +17%, TSM +9%, AMAT +9% to the upside; FTI -8%, XOM -6%, LULU -6%, LMT -5% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level.
T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: LLY, GOOG, NVDA, RBRK, SPY, UNH (+5 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: OSCR, ASML, INTC, LRCX, NBIS, SMSN.L. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: AMAT. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ADBE, BABA, BIDU, COST, ETHA, GLD, INTU, LMT, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOC, NVO, PALL, PINS, PLTR, SHOP, SLV, WMT, XOM, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
