This week’s edge: the confirmation arrived. Breadth broadened out as Breakdowns fell from 16 to 6 and Trend-Holds grew to 27, and this time the indexes came with it, with both SPY and QQQ reclaiming a clean trend. The risk flips from missing the turn to overpaying for it: take the pullbacks, leave the extended names alone.
Market Conditions
The broad tape broke higher this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 773.26, Trend-Hold and up 3.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 723.03 is Trend-Hold and up 5.1% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved: Breakdowns fell from 16 to 6, Repairs fell from 12 to 7, and Trend-Holds rose from 15 to 27. Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 27 to 4, a broad advance that carried the indexes with it. The advance was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: RDW +58%, PLTR +40%, SHOP +29%, CRWV +26% to the upside, against OSCR -11%, XRPI -4%, FTI -3%, XRH0.L -2% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in BIDU and XRH0.L, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMAT, ASML, COPX and GLD, among others. That is the confirmation the prior week was waiting on: the reclaim now runs from the individual names all the way up to the indexes themselves. Broad participation is the strongest version of this signal, but it also means the easy part of the move is behind us. The framework still engages at defined levels: chasing extended names here is how a good tape turns into a bad entry.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMAT, ASML, COPX, GLD, LLY, NVDA, PLTR, QQQ, RBRK, RDW, SHOP, TSM, XOVR. The strongest signal of the week. Several got there in a single week, so the weekly chart still has to hold it.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AIXA.DE, CRWV, ETHA, INTC, LRCX, LULU, NOC, NVO, PALL, SLV, SOFI. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: ASTS, NFLX, ORCL. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: OSCR. It lost its trend and now has to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: NBIS. Downgraded a full step, treat it as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: BIDU, XRH0.L. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
How Last Week’s Setups Played Out
We publish the levels in advance so they can be judged afterwards. That cuts both ways, so here is the whole scorecard, not the flattering half of it.
The featured five did their job.
SPY. The plan wanted the breakout above 755.58. It triggered on Monday and tagged the 758.45 first target the same day, closing the week at 773.26.
AVGO. Monday’s low at 374.61 carried price back through the 381.00 to 387.70 pullback band, and from there it cleared the first target at 407.52 and the second at 416.02 by Tuesday, closing at 427.76.
PANW. The pullback band at 327.25 to 330.27 filled on Monday’s low of 330.00, the 368.80 first target was reached on Wednesday, and price closed at 363.86.
BRK.B. The breakout above 516.66 triggered and price closed at 521.80. The 526.44 first target is still live, with the week’s high at 525.44.
ITA. The honest one of the group. The 251.49 breakout doubled as the first target, so it triggered and immediately hit, ran to 256.60, then gave the move back to close at 250.75. When entry and target are the same level, you get a round trip rather than a trade, and that is a weakness in the setup rather than a feature of it.
Four of five reached a first target and none came near an invalidation, which averaged out to about 5.9% against the S&P’s 3.5%. Worth keeping in proportion: in a week this strong, a basket of long setups reaching T1 is a good deal closer to what the tape was handing out than to genius. The real test of this section is the first flat week, not this one.
Now the part that cost you. The framework’s avoid list was the best-performing group in the universe. Those sixteen names averaged roughly 15.6% on the week, and four of them, RDW at 58%, PLTR at 40%, SHOP at 29% and CRWV at 26%, were the biggest gainers we cover.
A rule that waits for a reclaim will never put you in the first leg off a bottom, and in a violent snapback week that is exactly what it costs. The other side of the ledger is why the rule exists at all. RDW and CRWV had sat on the avoid list for six straight weeks before this one, and over that stretch they fell 67% and 48% from their summer highs. The rule that kept you out of those six weeks is the same rule that kept you out of this one. You do not get to skip the drawdown and catch the first bounce with a single rule, and anyone selling you a framework that does both is selling hindsight.
One outright bad call. OSCR sat on last week’s Trend-Hold list tagged “buy dips” and fell 10.6% to 27.90, straight through the 27.81 to 28.08 stop band. If you took it, the stop did its job and you are out. It is now Transitional and has to re-prove itself before it earns a place on any list again.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Closest to a defined entry: GOOG, AMAT, XOM, LLY, TSM, ASML, plus 4 more tagged Near entry below. Price is already sitting on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and you are not chasing. Near is not the same as cheap, so read the stop on each one before sizing. One caveat on that list. AMAT, LLY, TSM and ASML reclaimed their trend from well below, so the EMA200 invalidation sits 13% to 24% away. The entry is close, the thesis stop is not. Size those to the tactical stop rather than the regime level, or take half.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: PANW, AMZN, LMT, TGT, SHOP, XOVR, plus 1 more tagged Near entry below. Clean trends with room to run, but wait for the pullback.
Most dangerous chase setups: MSFT, RTX. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: BIDU, META, NKE, WMT, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
