Trade Plan Update - Week of July 27 2026
Breadth Weakens, Leadership Narrows, and the Playbook Turns Defensive
This week’s edge: regime breadth deteriorated as Breakdowns rose to 24 and leadership thinned. Trim or avoid the broken names until they reclaim, do not chase the falling leaders, and lean on the names that are actually holding and reclaiming their trends.
Market Conditions
The broad tape softened this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 738.93, Transitional and roughly flat on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 684.23 is Transitional and down 1.6% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth deteriorated: Breakdowns went from 18 to 24, Repairs from 13 to 8, and Trend-Holds from 12 to 10. Regime downgrades outnumbered upgrades 15 to 9, a clear risk-off tilt. The selling concentrated in PANW -10%, ORCL -9%, SHOP -8%, META -8% on the downside, while LMT +15%, RTX +10%, FTI +7%, XOM +7% held up against the tape. Fresh damage showed up in AMZN, BABA, GOOG, META, dropping to Breakdown. The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in BRK.B, ITA, LMT, NVDA. This reads as a defensive rotation, not a systemic stress event. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: BRK.B, ITA, LMT, NVDA. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: AVGO, COPX, IFX.DE, NBIS. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: NOC. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: NVO, PANW, UNH. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: ADBE, DG, INTC. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AMZN, BABA, GOOG, META, MSFT, NKE, PLTR, SHOP, XOVR. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: LMT +15%, RTX +10%, FTI +7%, XOM +7% to the upside; PANW -10%, ORCL -9%, SHOP -8%, META -8% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: BRK.B, NVDA, TGT, ITA, LLY. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: AAPL, XOM, FTI. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: RTX. Overbought leaders; the trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: AMZN, ASTS, BABA, BIDU, COST, CRWV, GLD, GOOG, LULU, META, MSFT, NFLX, NKE, ORCL, PALL, PLTR, RDW, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XOVR, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK.B), Last close: 494.93
Setup: Berkshire Hathaway reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. Daily and weekly are aligned in Trend-Hold; price rides above the entire 1D EMA stack and the 1D EMA20 at 492.78 is the first line to defend. Daily RSI 53.4 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; the structure holds, let the level trigger the entry not the clock. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 488.98 (1.2% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Market view: diversified quality, a defensive market anchor; in step with the market this week.
