Verizon ($VZ): A Boring Stock with Breakout Energy
FCF is soaring, the chart is coiling, and the crowd’s not paying attention — here’s why this telecom giant could quietly outperform.
The best trades are often hiding in plain sight — and paying 6.3% while you wait.
In a Nutshell
FCF surging while the stock quietly reclaims trend lines
Golden crosses confirmed on short-term
Elliott Wave shows a completed Wave 3, with Wave 4 correction about to launch
Strong institutional volume return and Fib structure confirms trend
Accumulate dips with support near $42.10–$42.40
Fundamental Analysis
Verizon may not command headlines, but its turnaround is quietly taking shape.
Revenue + Cash Flow
TTM Revenue: $135.3B (flat but stable)
TTM Free Cash Flow: $20.2B (+56% YoY)
Operating Cash Flow: $38.3B
Dividend Yield: 6.3%, covered 1.5x by FCF
Profitability + Valuation
EPS: $4.20 (TTM), up from $2.76 in 2023
Net Income: $17.8B (up from $11.6B YoY)
Forward P/E: ~9.0x
EV/EBITDA: ~7.2x
Balance Sheet + Leverage
Net Debt: $139.8B (down from $148.6B). Decreasing trend but high D/E
Interest covered 1.5x by FCF
CapEx falling, working capital improving
Credit rating: BBB+, stable
Verizon isn’t a growth rocket. But it's a free cash flow machine with improving margins and renewed financial discipline.
Rating: Fundamentally Bullish
Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 3 completed on daily and weekly charts, expecting to move into 4
On the monthly charts, Wave 5 has just ended, moving into A. Expect a decline in prices before an uptick.
Fib Zones + Retracements
Extensions from recent lows project targets of $43.71, $44.80, and $46.00
Minor pullbacks holding expected on lower timeframes
Retracements show support levels around $42.00-$41.35, which combined with the Elliott Wave structure signals a temporary dip in price
MACD + RSI
Weekly MACD just flipped bullish — early-stage signal
Daily MACD in bullish crossover with histogram expansion
RSI showing overbought in short timeframes, and around the 50s and 60s across longer term frames. Seems like a bullish momentum trend
Golden Crosses + Moving Averages
Golden crosses confirmed on short-term timeframes (50SMA > 200SMA)
2H 50SMA nearing crossover with 200SMA — likely soon
EMA alignment bullish (20 > 50 > 200)
Volume + Price Structure
Breakout volume spike at $42.80–$43.10 confirms demand
Prior resistance at $42.10–$42.40 now acting as strong support
Compression above breakout level signals strength and trend continuation
This isn’t just a bounce — it’s the beginning of trend transition backed by earnings power.
Rating: Technically Bullish
Recent Developments
As of June 2025, Verizon has made a series of small but telling moves:
Exploring sale of legacy wireline assets
Reaffirmed FY2025 guidance with improving ARPU and earnings
CapEx control and FCF prioritization continue
5G spectrum rollout remains ahead of plan
Operational discipline is quietly restoring investor confidence.
Trade Plan
2–6 week timeframe with long-term optionality
Entry Zone: $42.80–$43.30
Support Zone: $42.10–$42.40
Stop Loss: $41.40
Target 1: $44.50
Target 2: $45.80
Target 3: $47.00
Execution Strategy:
Starter position near $43.00
Add above $44.00 with volume confirmation
Trim between $45.80–$47.00, trail remainder
To Conclude
Verizon is misunderstood, not because it’s speculative, but because it’s slow and boring. But that’s the edge.
Beneath the surface:
EPS and FCF are accelerating
Technicals are shifting into a bullish structure
Institutional accumulation is returning
Valuation remains below market average
With golden crosses forming and a breakout underway, this isn’t just a defensive yield play. It’s a breakout in disguise.
You don’t need excitement. You need clarity, conviction, and asymmetric setups. Verizon is quietly offering all three.
The information in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the author’s personal research and analysis, which may be subject to error or omission. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
Has a chance to get going soon!