Visa & Mastercard Earnings Preview
Payments powerhouses step up. Technicals tighten. Guidance will drive the next trend.
Two of the most important, but often overlooked pillars of global commerce are reporting earnings this week: Visa V 0.00%↑ and Mastercard MA 0.00%↑ .
While they don’t dominate headlines like the Magnificent 7, they process trillions in transactions across the globe. And unlike most tech names, they’re often less volatile but just as rewarding, especially when they break trend.
This post covers:
Key earnings expectations for Visa & Mastercard
What to watch in each segment (cross-border, volumes, expenses)
Likely upside/downside reactions
Technical setups + how we’re trading it
Key Takeaways
Visa and Mastercard both have low ADX readings, momentum is building, but hasn't exploded yet.
Fib extensions show clearly defined upside targets in a breakout scenario.
Both charts show bullish reversal formations with improving momentum indicators (MACD, RSI).
Earnings guidance: especially on cross-border volume and consumer spending trend, will likely decide direction.
Visa V 0.00%↑
What to Watch
Cross-border volumes are the most sensitive to macro trends and travel patterns, expect slower growth YoY, but any beat here will be rewarded.
Payment volume growth is expected to normalize, and client incentives (discounts offered to banks) will be key for margin outlook.
FX-neutral revenue growth will be watched closely. Analysts expect 9–10% YoY, but with slowing comps.
Technical Setup
Visa just cleared the 9/20/50-day EMAs again after bouncing from $340 support.
RSI: rising, now ~55, suggesting building momentum but not overbought
MACD: bullish crossover confirmed
Stochastic RSI: overbought zone, but hasn’t rolled over yet
Bollinger Bands: starting to expand, price near upper band
ADX: still low at 14.5, meaning trend has not fully accelerated yet
Fib Breakdown
Here's how to understand the Fib extension levels we’re watching:
Fibonacci extensions are price zones traders use to anticipate where a stock might extend after a move (usually up). They’re based on math ratios from prior moves—but they only work if the stock breaks out.
1.618 Fib = $384.42 → typical first breakout target
2.618 Fib = $409.16 → strong bull extension
3.618 Fib = $433.90
4.236 Fib = $449.19
Think of these as ladder rungs; each is a possible stop where the stock could slow or reverse after a breakout. But they are only meaningful if earnings/guidance justify the move.
Support zones:
0.236 Fib = $353.82 → very short-term support
0.382 / 0.5 Fib = $350–347 → stronger support
$340 is key. A break below that invalidates the bullish structure.
Earnings Reaction Scenarios
Heavy beat (volume + margins + travel bounce): stock pushes through $360 and targets $384+
Beat inline: mild push to $360–364, possibly stalls
Inline: retests $350–353, rangebound
Miss: drops to $340 quickly, risk of $328 if guidance weak
Trade Plan
Our bet:
We are not chasing Visa into earnings. We’d prefer to accumulate stock on a post-earnings dip to $344–348, with a stop near $338.
If Visa beats and breaks above $360, we’ll wait for a confirmed close >$364 before entering for a swing toward the $384 target.
Mastercard MA 0.00%↑
What to Watch
Revenue is expected to rise ~10% YoY. Key drivers: cross-border spending, switched transactions, and assessment fees.
Operating expenses are forecast to rise 11–12% YoY, which could pressure margins.
FX-neutral growth and travel commentary will drive sentiment.
Technical Setup
Mastercard has had a cleaner technical recovery than Visa and is slightly stronger on momentum.
Price: cleared 9/20/50 EMA stack
RSI: ~56.5 and climbing
MACD: bullish crossover confirmed, histogram building
Stoch RSI: overbought
Bollinger Bands: starting to open
ADX: also low at 14 → this is a "calm before the trend" look
Fib Breakdown
The Fib extension map for Mastercard is even more explosive than Visa’s, but again—these levels only activate if the stock breaks $579.
1.618 = $616
2.618 = $659
3.618 = $702
4.236 = $729
These levels don’t mean Mastercard will hit those targets, but they help map what’s possible if buyers step in strongly post-earnings.
Support levels:
Short-term: $560.50
Fib support cluster: $554–548
Deeper: $536, $527
Worst-case support: $515, $500
Earnings Reaction Scenarios
Strong beat + travel surprise: breakout toward $580+, targets $600–616
Beat inline: stalls at $572–579
Inline: fades back to $554
Miss: quick drop to $536, possible test of $515
Trade Plan
Our bet:
We’re watching for a breakout over $579.50 after earnings. If confirmed, we may enter for a swing trade with a target at $616.
If Mastercard drops to $536 or lower on earnings weakness, we’ll look to accumulate shares gradually with a stop under $515.
Bottom Line
Visa and Mastercard don’t get the same hype as the Magnificent 7, but they are high-quality compounders that reward patience and technical setups.
What we’re watching this week:
Cross-border volumes vs expectations
Expense trends & margin commentary
Technical breakouts vs failed breakouts
Right now, the charts are coiled and ready. We’re not chasing, but if these names move with force, the Fib extensions give us a roadmap.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.