Weekly Trade Plan Update - Week of July 13, 2026
Growth Rebounds, Breadth Improves, but Confirmation Still Matters
This week’s edge: the beaten-down growth and AI names rebounded (BABA, META, AVGO led) and regime breadth improved as Breakdowns fell from 16 to 15, but the broad indexes have not confirmed the turn. Respect the reclaim: engage the names that actually reclaimed their trend on pullbacks, and still demand price confirmation before chasing the bounce.
Market Conditions
The broad tape steadied this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 754.95, Trend-Hold and up 1.4% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 725.51 is Trend-Hold and up 1.8% on the week. Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved: Breakdowns went from 16 to 15, Repairs from 10 to 10, and Trend-Holds from 14 to 19.
Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 13 to 9, a recovery week rather than fresh liquidation. The rebound was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: BABA +17%, META +15%, AVGO +11%, CRWV +9% to the upside, against ASTS -14%, AIXA.DE -11%, RDW -10%, INTC -9% on the downside. Fresh damage showed up in ASTS, MSFT, NFLX, PLTR, dropping to Breakdown.
The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMD, AMZN, AVGO, FTI. This reads as a relief rally in beaten-down leadership, not broad, confirmed strength. The framework still requires price to confirm at defined levels: a reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMD, AMZN, AVGO, FTI, META, NVDA, QQQ, TGT. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: NKE. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: BABA, BIDU, ETHA, PALL. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: BRK.B, ITA, NVO. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: AIXA.DE, LMT. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: ASTS, MSFT, NFLX, PLTR. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: BABA +17%, META +15%, AVGO +11%, CRWV +9% to the upside; ASTS -14%, AIXA.DE -11%, RDW -10%, INTC -9% to the downside.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven. We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the 1D EMA stack, cross-checked against the 1W chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level. T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout; Transitional names take half size or wait; Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim; Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position; the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
Start here. The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: QQQ, AMZN, SPY, XOVR, LLY, UNH (+3 more in the table). Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: RBRK, FFIV, AAPL. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: none this week. After a broad selloff nothing is overbought, which is itself a measure of how much momentum was unwound.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: ASTS, COST, CRWV, GLD, INTU, MSFT, NFLX, ORCL, PLTR, RDW, SLV, WMT, XOM, XRH0.L, XRPI. No long exposure; not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position.
This update covers the following 60 stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Last close: 725.51
Setup: Invesco QQQ reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 720.06 as first support. Daily RSI 52.8 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish stabilizing; momentum is firming, accumulate into support rather than strength. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 650.94 (10.3% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Market view: the Nasdaq-100, the gauge for AI and growth leadership; moving with the broad market this week.
