Our Trade Plan Update For Week 4 Jan26
Active Trade Setups, Key Levels, and Risk Framework by Sector
This week’s update is a readout of structure, not a new set of opinions. Some names have moved from “entry-quality pullbacks” into “management and follow-through” territory. Others are still stuck in ranges where the only edge is waiting for price to prove direction. And a few setups have clearly shifted character, where protecting capital matters more than hoping the prior framework reasserts itself.
The common thread is simple: levels are doing the decision-making. When price reclaims breakout zones and holds them, we stay constructive and manage risk upward. When price fails reclaim attempts or loses the band that defined the thesis, we stop treating it like a trend and start treating it like a range or a breakdown.
This is an execution week, not a prediction week. The market decides which breakouts deserve continuation and which rallies were only mean reversion. Our job is to show up at the right prices, with defined risk, and let the chart do the heavy lifting.
How our trade plans work
Our process is rules-based and level-driven. Every setup is framed around a small number of decision zones: reclaim zones, pullback shelves, breakout triggers, targets, and a clear invalidation level. We act only at defined levels, where downside risk is already known.
We avoid the middle. We don’t chase strength. We step aside when structure breaks. Not every dip is a buy. Not every bounce deserves exposure. Cash is a position. Waiting is part of the plan.
Mechanically, the playbook is consistent:
If price is above a reclaimed breakout band and holding, the setup is in continuation mode and the job becomes management (trail risk up, respect the reclaimed zone, target the next checkpoints).
If price is inside the range between demand and resistance, the setup is in “no edge” mode and patience is the trade.
If price loses the level that defined the thesis (daily or weekly, depending on the plan), we treat it as invalidation. No rationalizing, no “it’ll come back.” The framework flips from offense to defense automatically.
That’s the point of falsifiable plans: we’re not trying to be right, we’re trying to be consistent.
What has been working
The plans have stayed on the rails because they’ve been falsifiable and level-driven. Where price held reclaimed zones (examples called out directly: GOOG holding above its trigger and AMZN holding above the breakout band), we’ve stayed in continuation mode with clear next checkpoints. Where price rotated back into support zones (META back into 600–620, NKE back into the reclaim band), the decision becomes risk-defined again rather than emotional.
On the flip side, the process has also protected us from forcing exposure. When structure didn’t repair (ADBE losing its framework, ORCL remaining corrective, JD failing to reclaim key resistance), the framework automatically shifted from offense to patience or defense. And in commodities/crypto, the same rules have kept execution clean: trends that hold support stay in play (COPX, GLD, SLV), while range-bound digital assets require confirmation rather than hope (XRPI, ETHA).
The edge we’re protecting is repeatable decision-making. Not being right. Being consistent.
This update covers the following 35+ stocks and ETFs across consumer, technology, healthcare, industrials, and commodities.
All are evaluated using the same rules-based framework and level-driven process.
This report concludes with a comprehensive, downloadable Trade Plan Summary table (PDF), designed as a quick reference to all active and developing setups discussed.
Our Trade Plans by Sector / Industry
Technology – Mega Cap & Platforms
Alphabet - GOOG 0.00%↑
Where price is now relative to the original plan
Price is 328.43, holding above the prior breakout and acceptance zone at 319.70–322.50, and well above the pullback entry band at 303.60–300.00. Structure remains in the continuation phase below higher targets.
What price action has confirmed or challenged
The breakout above 322.50 has been confirmed and sustained. The recent consolidation is occurring above former resistance, which reinforces acceptance rather than rejection. No part of the original plan has been invalidated. The structural stop at 291.00 remains untouched and valid.
If you are already holding
The position remains valid as long as price holds above 319.70 on a closing basis. Upside objectives remain 338.70 first, then 355.30 on continuation. A pullback that holds 322.50–319.70 keeps trend momentum intact and allows stops to trail toward 303.60 if a higher low forms.
If you are not in the position
Chasing at 328.43 offers weaker asymmetry. Preferred entries remain a controlled pullback into 322.50–319.70, or deeper into 303.60–300.00 if momentum resets. A clean push and hold above 338.70 opens continuation toward 355.30. The thesis is invalidated only on a decisive loss of 291.00.
Amazon - AMZN 0.00%↑
Where price is now relative to the original plan
Price is 239.16, holding above the reclaimed breakout zone at 233.40–236.00 and pressing into the continuation area just below T2 at 240.10.
What price action has confirmed or challenged
The breakout has been reclaimed and accepted. Price pushed back above 236.00 and held, confirming the prior pullback as corrective rather than a failed breakout. No part of the original thesis has been challenged. Invalidation at 211.00 remains untouched.
If you are already holding
The trade remains valid as long as price holds 233.40 on a closing basis. Upside targets remain 240.10 first, then 257.90, with extension to 270.50 if momentum sustains. A successful hold above 236.00 allows stops to trail toward 224.30 on any higher low.
If you are not in the position
Chasing above 239.16 weakens risk reward. Preferred entries remain a pullback into 236.00–233.40, or deeper into 224.30 if price retraces while holding structure. Continuation strength above 240.10 opens the path toward 257.90. The thesis is invalidated only on a decisive loss of 211.00.
