I just stumbled on this post because I typed in AMD in the search bar. Well written and thoroughly enjoyed it. I've held AMD for quite a while and recently started buying again with the big dip. But now I'm reconsidering especially in light of the geopolitical and tariff situation. Starting to drift into capital preservation mode. What are your current thoughts on AMD since writing this post? Looking at the chart, feb. 5 appears to be the low close of 192.50.
Great question. The Feb 5 close near 192.50 was the exact stress test of that 194 structural line we discussed, and holding above it kept this in correction territory. With price now around 196 and pre market pushing toward 224, the focus shifts to whether we can reclaim and hold above the 219 to 221 repair zone. If that level is accepted on a daily close, the character improves meaningfully. If it fades back below 200, then we are still in a choppy repair phase. For now, the level is doing its job. Confirmation is what matters next.
Wow what a difference 24 hours makes. Fr I went to bed last night fretting over my AMD thesis being broken primarily based on the HBM bottleneck and NVDA being the big pockets ready to gobble everything up.
Then Meta steps in and announces the partnership overnight. I wake up expecting red and preparing to sell then see big green. Then discover the Meta news. Which I also hold. But yeah great timing. Thanks for the reply!
Appreciate that. Deployment lumpiness is often underweighted, especially in semis where inventory leads revenue by quarters, not weeks. That’s why this felt less about timing a bottom and more about defining when opportunity becomes real versus when it’s just volatility.
I just stumbled on this post because I typed in AMD in the search bar. Well written and thoroughly enjoyed it. I've held AMD for quite a while and recently started buying again with the big dip. But now I'm reconsidering especially in light of the geopolitical and tariff situation. Starting to drift into capital preservation mode. What are your current thoughts on AMD since writing this post? Looking at the chart, feb. 5 appears to be the low close of 192.50.
Great question. The Feb 5 close near 192.50 was the exact stress test of that 194 structural line we discussed, and holding above it kept this in correction territory. With price now around 196 and pre market pushing toward 224, the focus shifts to whether we can reclaim and hold above the 219 to 221 repair zone. If that level is accepted on a daily close, the character improves meaningfully. If it fades back below 200, then we are still in a choppy repair phase. For now, the level is doing its job. Confirmation is what matters next.
Wow what a difference 24 hours makes. Fr I went to bed last night fretting over my AMD thesis being broken primarily based on the HBM bottleneck and NVDA being the big pockets ready to gobble everything up.
Then Meta steps in and announces the partnership overnight. I wake up expecting red and preparing to sell then see big green. Then discover the Meta news. Which I also hold. But yeah great timing. Thanks for the reply!
That’s markets in a nutshell. Thesis stress one day, narrative relief the next.
The Meta headline helps sentiment, but it doesn’t eliminate the HBM constraint or competitive reality overnight.
What matters is whether this demand converts into sustained revenue and whether price holds reclaimed levels.
We try not to let green or red mornings dictate long-term decisions. Structure first, headlines second.
Appreciate that. Deployment lumpiness is often underweighted, especially in semis where inventory leads revenue by quarters, not weeks. That’s why this felt less about timing a bottom and more about defining when opportunity becomes real versus when it’s just volatility.