Excellent analysis! I appreciate the clear distinction between NVDA's entrenched position and AMD's 'requires confirmation' status. What if, despite AMD's improving pipeline, the network effects and established developer ecosystem around NVIDIA's CUDA prove to be an even stickier long-term moat than current expectations suggest, especialy in a market for patience?
That’s a fair point, and I think the market increasingly agrees. CUDA and NVIDIA’s developer ecosystem aren’t just switching costs; they’re coordination costs across hardware, software, and workflows.
That’s exactly why we frame NVDA as consolidating leadership, not losing it. The nuance is that this advantage is well understood and heavily embedded in expectations, which shifts the edge from thesis validation to execution, timing, and risk control.
AMD’s opportunity isn’t challenging NVIDIA’s position, but earning credibility at the margins where budgets, mix, or second-source demand allow room.
Excellent analysis! I appreciate the clear distinction between NVDA's entrenched position and AMD's 'requires confirmation' status. What if, despite AMD's improving pipeline, the network effects and established developer ecosystem around NVIDIA's CUDA prove to be an even stickier long-term moat than current expectations suggest, especialy in a market for patience?
That’s a fair point, and I think the market increasingly agrees. CUDA and NVIDIA’s developer ecosystem aren’t just switching costs; they’re coordination costs across hardware, software, and workflows.
That’s exactly why we frame NVDA as consolidating leadership, not losing it. The nuance is that this advantage is well understood and heavily embedded in expectations, which shifts the edge from thesis validation to execution, timing, and risk control.
AMD’s opportunity isn’t challenging NVIDIA’s position, but earning credibility at the margins where budgets, mix, or second-source demand allow room.