Trade Plan Update - Week of August 3 2026
Breadth improved sharply as the beaten-down AI names rebounded, but the indexes have not confirmed the turn. Here is how to engage a bounce that has not proved itself.
Welcome to IWP’s weekly trade plan update!
Every Sunday, we take the 60 stocks and ETFs we cover, classify each one by trend regime, and publish the levels that decide the trade. Where to enter, where the thesis breaks, and where to take profit.
Thank you for being a paid subscriber. If you’re familiar with our framework, scroll down to see this week’s Top 5 Actionable Setups (here are last week’s in case you forgot).
We publish this on Sundays so you can plan ahead instead of chasing it throughout the week. This isn’t a market view you could find anywhere, but rather the specific levels we are watching based on our IWP framework.
This week that count dropped to 16.
If a level or a call does not sit right with you, leave a comment and tell us. We read every response, and your questions shape what gets covered.
This Week’s Edge
The beaten-down growth and AI names rebounded (led by MSFT 0.00%↑, AMZN 0.00%↑, and ORCL 0.00%↑ ) and regime breadth improved as Breakdowns fell from 24 to 16. But, the broad indexes have not confirmed the turn yet, which we hope to see this coming week.
Respect the reclaim: engage the names that actually reclaimed their trend on pullbacks, and still demand price confirmation before chasing the bounce.
Market Conditions
The broad market steadied this week. The S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ closed at 747.03, reached Trend-Hold, and was up 1.1% on the week, while the Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑ at 687.99 is Transitional and roughly flat on the week.
Beneath the surface, regime breadth improved:
Breakdowns decreased from 24 to 16
Repairs grew from 8 to 12
Trend-Holds from 11 to 15.
Regime upgrades outnumbered downgrades 17 to 8, a recovery week rather than fresh liquidation.
The rebound was led by the highest-beta growth and AI names: MSFT +22%, AMZN +17%, ORCL +13%, GOOG 0.00%↑ +12% to the upside, against AIXA.DE -14%, AMD 0.00%↑ -9%, IFX.DE -8%, AAPL 0.00%↑ -7% on the downside.
Fresh damage showed up in AIXA.DE, dropping to Breakdown.
The cleanest signal was a full reclaim of Trend-Hold in AMZN, AVGO 0.00%↑, DG, GOOG.
Last week was more of a relief rally in beaten-down leadership. We’re not at broad, confirmed strength yet. The framework still requires forward prices to confirm at defined levels. A reclaim is an invitation to engage on a pullback, not a reason to chase the bounce.
What Changed From Last Week
Reclaimed Trend-Hold: AMZN, AVGO, DG, GOOG, MSFT, OSCR, PANW, PINS, SPY. The strongest signal of the week, structure fully repaired.
Lifted out of Breakdown into Transitional: ADBE, BABA, INTU. Early bounces that still need to prove themselves.
First repair off the lows: BIDU, COST, LULU, PALL, XRH0.L. Damaged names showing the first sign of basing.
Cooled out of Trend-Hold into Transitional: AAPL, FTI, LLY, NVDA. Leaders that lost their trend and now need to re-prove it.
Lost the trend, into Repair: IFX.DE, LRCX, NVO. Downgraded a full step, treat as damaged until reclaimed.
Broke down: AIXA.DE. Fresh damage, the framework moves these to the avoid list.
Biggest movers: MSFT +22%, AMZN +17%, ORCL +13%, GOOG +12% to the upside; AIXA.DE -14%, AMD -9%, IFX.DE -8%, AAPL -7% to the downside.
The Week Ahead
Two things can move these names before the levels do.
Earnings. Quite a few of the 60 companies covered report this week:
Monday: PLTR 0.00%↑
Tuesday: AMD 0.00%↑ PINS 0.00%↑
Wednesday: LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑ SHOP 0.00%↑ $IFX.DE RDW 0.00%↑
Thursday: OSCR 0.00%↑
Saturday: BRK.B (expected)
Earnings are binary and the framework does not trade into them. If a name sits at a defined entry and reports this week, either take the setup at a reduced size or wait for the print and re-read the structure afterward. BRK.B is one of this week’s featured setups and reports Saturday, so the level work holds all week and the risk lands after the close.
Jobs, Friday. The July employment report lands Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the only top-tier macro print of the week. There is no Fed meeting until September 15 and 16, so rate policy is not a live variable in this week. The labor data is what can reprice the long end and, through it, the high-multiple names that just bounced.
Neither changes the plan. Both may change the sizing.
How Our Trade Plans Work
Our framework is rules-based and level-driven.
We classify each name into a regime (Trend-Hold, Transitional, Repair, or Breakdown) using the Daily EMA stack, cross-checked against the Weekly chart. Every entry, target, and invalidation traces back to a specific indicator level.
T1 is the first profit-take layer, T2 is the structural objective, T3 is the stretch target on full continuation. Sizing follows the regime: Trend-Hold names take normal size but only on a pullback to support or a confirmed breakout. Transitional names take half size or wait. Repair names take a starter only after a reclaim. Breakdown names are avoided until a reclaim confirms.
Two stops, two jobs. The trade stop protects the position and the regime invalidation changes the thesis. The trade stop is the tactical level where a single trade is wrong and you cut it. The regime invalidation is the deeper level where the entire classification flips to a lower regime and the reason to own the name is gone. They differ on purpose: one manages risk, the other manages conviction.
Cash is a position, and waiting is part of the plan. This update ranks 60 stocks and ETFs: the highest-conviction, near-entry names get a full setup, and the rest are tracked in the watchlist table so nothing in the universe goes uncovered.
This Week’s Playbook
The detailed setups follow for the top names, and the full watchlist table covers the rest.
Best risk/reward this week: SPY, ITA, AVGO, PANW, BRK.B. Price is already at a defined entry on the 1D EMA20, so the trigger is near and the risk is tight; these are the names that reclaimed or held their trend, the cleanest longs to engage as leadership rotates.
Best leaders to buy only on weakness: RTX, XOM, AMZN. Clean trends with room to run, but buy the pullback, do not pay up here.
Most dangerous chase setups: MSFT. Overbought leaders. The trend is real but the entry is not, wait for a reset.
Avoid until a reclaim confirms: AIXA.DE, ASTS, CRWV, GLD, META, NFLX, NKE, ORCL, PLTR, RDW, SHOP, SLV, SOFI, WMT, XOVR, XRPI. No long exposure. Not every dip is a setup, and cash is the position right now.
Top 5 Actionable Setups
The highest-conviction names sitting closest to a defined entry, with full detail, levels, and both stops for each. The next tier follows in the Also Actionable table, and the rest of the universe in the full watchlist below it.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Last close: 747.03
Setup: SPY 0.00%↑ reclaimed a full Trend-Hold this week, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four daily EMAs with the EMA20 at 743.03 as first support. Daily RSI at 53.1 (neutral-positive), MACD bearish but stabilizing. In this digestive environment, act only at defined levels. The thesis breaks on a daily close below 707.06 (5.4% below current), which would shift the shifting regime to Transitional.
Market view: SPDR represents the broad market itself. It shows improving breadth and upgrades leading downgrades 17 to 8.
Entries:
Pullback: 727.63 to 746.28 (1D EMA20 support band, price sitting right above the upper end)
Breakout: above 755.58 (20-day high)
Targets:
T1: 758.45 (1D 60-bar high)
T2: 800.31 (1D Fib ext 200)
T3: 826.19 (1D Fib ext 261.8)
Trade risk: Tactical stop on a daily close below 729.10 (1D 20-bar swing low), about 2.4% from current, tighter than the regime invalidation below.
Stop: Regime invalidation is a daily close below 707.06 (1D EMA200). A break here shifts this to Transitional.
If you’re already holding: Trail below 1D EMA20 (743.03). Take partials at T1 (758.45).
If you’re not holding: Wait for pullback to 1D EMA20 (743.03) or above 755.58.
iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF (ITA), Last close: 239.66
Setup: iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense held its Trend-Hold, little changed on the week. 1D and 1W both Trend-Hold; price above all four 1D EMAs with the 1D EMA20 at 237.61 as first support. Daily RSI 53.5 (neutral-positive), MACD bullish expanding; the tape is digesting, act only at defined levels. Thesis breaks on a daily close below 222.62 (7.1% below current), shifting regime to Transitional.
Market view: an aerospace and defense basket, riding the defense-spend trend. Seems to be moving with the broad market this week.
Entries:
