Superb framework for dissecting the three-way race in advanced node capacity. Your point about Samsung entering the strongest memory upcycle since 2018 via HBM is crucial but often understated. The real insight here is recognizing that HBM isn't just another memory product, it's a structural shift in how AI infrastructure scales bandwidth ahead of compute. If Samsung closes even 70% of the gap with SK hynix on HBM3E/4 qualification, their operating leverage could surprise consensus materially by H2 2026. What I find especially compelling is your technical overlay on Intel's B-wave structure.That 36.80-38.20 retracement zone you've outlined captures exactly the kind of risk-defined entry that prevents getting shaken out of a fragile but potentially valid turnaround. The key variable remains whether 18A can attract enough external foundry customers to justify the capex burn. If not, the entire IDM 2.0 thesis unravels regardless of how strong Xeon 6 performs.
Really appreciate this. You’re spot on about HBM being a structural, not cyclical, shift. The market still treats it like “fancy DRAM,” even though the economics and bottlenecks look more like advanced packaging. If Samsung narrows that qualification gap, the operating torque into 2026 could be far higher than models imply.
And yes, Intel’s entire story keeps collapsing back to the same pivot: can 18A attract real, sustained external demand, not just test chips. The product side is finally stabilizing, but without foundry scale the math doesn’t hold. The next 12–18 months will tell us if this rebuild becomes durable or just a temporary bounce.
Superb framework for dissecting the three-way race in advanced node capacity. Your point about Samsung entering the strongest memory upcycle since 2018 via HBM is crucial but often understated. The real insight here is recognizing that HBM isn't just another memory product, it's a structural shift in how AI infrastructure scales bandwidth ahead of compute. If Samsung closes even 70% of the gap with SK hynix on HBM3E/4 qualification, their operating leverage could surprise consensus materially by H2 2026. What I find especially compelling is your technical overlay on Intel's B-wave structure.That 36.80-38.20 retracement zone you've outlined captures exactly the kind of risk-defined entry that prevents getting shaken out of a fragile but potentially valid turnaround. The key variable remains whether 18A can attract enough external foundry customers to justify the capex burn. If not, the entire IDM 2.0 thesis unravels regardless of how strong Xeon 6 performs.
Really appreciate this. You’re spot on about HBM being a structural, not cyclical, shift. The market still treats it like “fancy DRAM,” even though the economics and bottlenecks look more like advanced packaging. If Samsung narrows that qualification gap, the operating torque into 2026 could be far higher than models imply.
And yes, Intel’s entire story keeps collapsing back to the same pivot: can 18A attract real, sustained external demand, not just test chips. The product side is finally stabilizing, but without foundry scale the math doesn’t hold. The next 12–18 months will tell us if this rebuild becomes durable or just a temporary bounce.